You may have come across the concept that the 20th century did not run from January 1900 to December 1999, but instead from July 1914 to September 2001, or perhaps until the beginning of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In a similar vein, though he may be out of parliament, British politics is still living in the Robert Halfon era.
MP for Harlow from 2010 to 2024, Halfon enjoyed a long and varied career in the Conservative Party. He served as chief of staff to Oliver Letwin as shadow chancellor, before becoming a deputy chair of the Tory Party, minister of state and select committee chair. But he will be best remembered by posterity for his campaigning on fuel duty.
This is personal to me. I dedicated a couple of years of my twenties at the Treasury trying to raise fuel duty, which is an odd calling, but we all do things when we're young. Of course, I did not even come close to succeeding. Fuel duty has essentially remained frozen since 2010, while a 5p cut was extended in March. None of this has come cheap.
Putting environmental concerns to one side, the problem is that the Office for Budget Responsibilityassumes that fuel duty will rise by inflation every year. Even if though never actually happens. For those of a certain vintage, think Charlie Brown and the football. Consequently, a freeze represents a real terms cut. And fuel duty is not some minor tax. It brought in around £25bn in 2023-24.
Go on, guess how much more the Exchequer would be receiving if fuel duty had risen by inflation since 2010. £500m? £5bn? Try north of £100bn. It is not for nothing that as prime minister, David Cameron described Halfon as "the most expensive MP in parliament".
Yet even amidst what is set to be of the biggest tax-raising Budgets of recent times,The Timesis reporting thatLabour is unlikely to raise fuel duty. Such a move would cost roughly £4bn a year, according to the OBR. Money Rachel Reeves will have to find from somewhere else.
It all rather begs the question, if now is not the right time to raise fuel duty, when will be? I suppose one avenue is to let the whole thing take care of itself. That is, wait until the transition to electric vehicles is complete, at which point fuel duty revenues will decline to nil. What a way to run a country.
This article appears in our award-winning newsletter, West End Final – delivered 4pm daily – bringing you the very best of the paper, from culture and comment to features and sport. Sign up here.
