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Russia’s massive drone and missile attack across Ukraine deprived one million homes of power, some of which has been restored already. President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that cluster anti-personnel mentions had been fired from some of the missiles.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia said at summit of the small group of friendly nations belonging to CSTO, the Central Security Treaty Organisation, in Astana that the strikes were in response to Ukraine using American ATACAMS and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike dumps and logistics centres inside Russia.
This argument has been rejected because this is the 11th mass attack by drones and missile on civilian infrastructure, particularly the power grid, this year. Previously this month a huge attack of over 400 bombs, drones and missiles were fired at Ukraine civilian centres on 17th November – which is before the US and UK gave permission for their missiles to be fired at depth targets behind Russian attacking forces inside Russia.
Putin is aiming at a dramatic knockout blow in Ukraine before Donald Trump is sworn in for his second term around January 20th. He has to declare victory in order to talk peace from what he believes will be a strong position. He aims to do this by grinding forward on the battlefield at an increasingly horrifying rate of casualties, and by smashing Ukraine’s civilian population into submission by destroying their cities, basic utilities of power and water, and livelihoods.
The latest target list included Kharkiv and Kyiv in the east and north, Kherson to the west, which was completely without power for hours, the port of Odesa and Lutsk to the west. The bombardment lasted nine and a half hours.
Putin boasted that there is more, and worse, to come
In Astana, Putin boasted that there is more, and worse, to come. He said Russia was continuing to develop the Oreshnik intermediate ballistic hypersonic missile fired at Dnipro last week. It launches 64 separate warheads and has nuclear potential.
Putin also claimed that Russia now produces ten times more missiles than all Nato countries put together. Next year production of long-range missiles will increase by 25 to 30%.
More than 500 businesses say they were affected by the latest strikes. By directly targeting civilians and civilian centres, the Russians are deliberately flouting humanitarian law and norms of the laws of war which forbid targeting non-combatants.
On the battlefield Russian troops are pushing forward steadily, though there have been reports of successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours. Casualties on both sides are large – with well over a million killed and wounded throughout Ukraine, including civilians, since the invasion by Russian forces on February 24th 2022.
Russia has lost over 710,000 killed and injured alone – according to latest releases from British Defence Intelligence and their American counterparts. In the Kharkiv sector British analysis reports a higher attrition rate than in any conflict for nearly 75 years. The measurement is 11 casualties per unit area – as high as the ghastly slaughter of the Chinese “human waves” at the end on the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. The equivalent attrition in the worst of the Vietnam War of the 1960s and early 70s, and for the infantry on the Western Front from 1914 to 1918, was around 6. Russian losses have been at around 2,000 a day for about a month now.
Russia is making up the numbers with the recruiting of 11,000 North Koreans to their forces now attacking in the Kursk and Kharkiv sectors. Thousands more are needed, and expected, in Russia soon. Lately Moscow has been recruiting Yemeni Houthis to fight in Ukraine. For their part, the Ukrainian forces continue to struggle with recruiting, and rotating reserves through front line units.
Russia is continuing to expand its operations
Russia is continuing to expand its operations in hybrid warfare activities, cyber strikes, hacks, sabotage of freight and communications cables and pipelines. The latest case to make the headlines is the suspicious movements of a Chinese super freighter, the Yi Peng 3, over an area where two communication cables between Sweden and Lithuania, and Finland and Germany were cut. The 225 meters long and 32 wide giant freighter left Ust-Luga in Russia on 15th November with a cargo of fertiliser. It then ‘went dark’ according to Danish and Swedish investigators – turning off its transponder, so it couldn’t be tracked.
However, it could be spotted by satellite, which recorded that it took an erratic zig-zag course at slow speed – likely because it was dragging a main anchor, which could cut the cables. The first between the island of Gotland and Lithuania was cut at about 9pm on 17th November, and the second between Germany and Finland at 3 am.
The ship is now being detained in open water by the Danish Navy and Swedish Coastguard, while the Russian captain – suspected of being under Moscow’s orders – and the Chinese owners are questioned.
This is one of a variety of incidents from undue attention to underwater cable hubs by a Russian survey ship in Irish waters, to explosions in freight warehouses, including charges placed in an imported cargo of sex toys, and the attempted assassination of senior executive of a major German defence company.
Nato’s new secretary general, Mark Rutte, has warned of Russia’s “intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks.” The head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl said this week that the increased tempo of attacks could bring a Nato member to invoke Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty which says that an attack on one member could trigger a response by the entire alliance.
Russia’s aggressive and illegal actions, and desperate search for victory might lead to Donald Trump revising his claim to settle the Ukraine war and its aftermath in just 24 hours.
Robert Fox is defence editor
