Former Labour prime minister Jim Callaghan famously once said that there are times in politics when there is “a sea-change” and “it does not matter what you say or do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of”.
Foretelling his coming defeat in 1979 he added: “I suspect there is now such a sea-change — and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
Does Rishi Sunak face a similar public mood now? The data suggests he might. Ipsos polling points to the cost of living, NHS, economy and immigration as key issues for the public.
Yet 75 per cent think his Government is doing a bad job on the cost of living, 82 per cent on the NHS and 69 per cent on the economy (the worst score the Conservatives have received since being in government).
Meanwhile immigration is a key issue for 2019 Conservative voters and 74 per cent of them think the Government is doing a bad job there.
It is perhaps unsurprising then that 65 per cent say it is “time for change” at the next general election. A figure that has barely moved this year. This includes three in 10 2019 Conservative voters and clear majorities in all regions of the country and in all age groups under the age of 65.
Is there any hope for Sunak? There are some tentative signs that economic optimism is improving, albeit from a very low base and with a long way to go.
Doubts about Labour persist, with the public split on whether Labour is ready for government.
The public are unconvinced Labour would do a better job in office and Sir Keir Starmer’s personal poll ratings are only lukewarm at best. This month’s by-election hold in Uxbridge and South Ruislip offered a crumb of comfort for Conservatives too.
But only a crumb. Conservative losses in Selby and Ainsty, and Somerton and Frome that same night suggest Uxbridge was driven more by Ulez rather than a new national trend.
The scale of swing against the Conservatives in these seats highlighted the hole they are in, facing a pincer movement of sorts from Labour and the Lib Dems in different areas of the country.
Turning the tide on this sea change, Callaghan once spoke of will not be easy. While voters may have doubts about Labour, they appear to have very few about the Conservatives — right now they want them out.
Rishi Sunak and his government will need to change minds quickly on the state of the country to avoid being engulfed by the waves.
