In early August 1979, Peter Cropper, a special advisor to newly-installed chancellor of the exchequer, Geoffrey Howe, sent a memo to colleagues. They should, he warned them, "stop being so downbeat. The world economy may be gloomy but there's absolutely no need for us to be gloomy."
As Dominic Sandbrook writes in 'Who Dares Wins', a history of Britain from 1979 to 1982, when Cropper read the Treasury's summary of their economic strategy, he was shocked at its miserabilism.
"There's no hint of the reforming crusade that some of us think we launched on. And no hint of the end goal of it all: joy, wealth, national power, two acres and a cow, a second car in every garage, interesting jobs, leisure, comfortable trains, channel tunnels, atomic power stations, gleaming new coal mines, everyone a bathroom, patios for all, etc etc."
Instead, he urged the government to chart a different course:
"We started out, quite rightly in my view, by displaying the bareness of the cupboard and emphasising the size of the job. But we must constantly remember that leadership, which is what we were elected to provide, consists largely in cheering people up, making them laugh and keeping them that way."
In her conference speech this afternoon, Rachel Reeves – the first Labour chancellor in 14 years – dabbled in a spot of mild boosterism. In an address light on policy, she leaned on a Brownite motif, returning to "the Britain we're building".
So Brownite in fact that, as The Times's Patrick Maguire points out, Gordon Brown delivered almost the exact same words in his 2009 speech to the party faithful, when, after listing many of the Labour's government achievements, he concluded: "That's the Britain we’ve been building together. That’s the change we choose!”
Reeves promised an industrial strategy and showed some pro-growth teeth, noting it was time the Treasury "moved on from just counting the costs of investments, to recognising the benefits too”. She also vowed "no return to austerity" though in reality, as Ben Zaranko of the Institute for Fiscal Studies notes, even under the previous government's plans, overall spending was set to grow in real terms.
This vibe shift towards optimism follows criticism that Labour's downbeat messaging on the economy has been self-defeating. And that while it is politically imperative for the government to blame its predecessor for its fiscal inheritance, it need not overcorrect. Indeed, as political editor Nicholas Cecil reports, a new Ipsos poll shows a sharp decline in public optimism since the election, with more than half of Britons expecting the economic conditions to get worse in the next year.
Yet, while the rhetoric may be subtly changing, it is not clear the overarching strategy is following suit. In fairness, we await the Budget on October 30, the event that will define this parliament. That’s when we can expect to more "difficult decisions" on spending, as well as tax rises in areas such as capital gains and inheritance.
Two years to the day since the Truss 'mini-Budget', Reeves set out her revised pitch to Britain. But the proof will come in the Autumn. Where will the cuts fall and tax rises hit? Will public investment enjoy a comeback? Can productivity growth be restored? NHS waiting lists cut? Will wages outpace inflation? Ultimately, it comes down to the question Cropper asked nearly half a century ago: can the government cheer the British people up?
