Kamala Harris had a stunningly successful convention beyond all expectations and yet the US presidential race remains too close to call. The result will come down to which party can maximise turnout. Harris is energising women voters on a huge scale, drawn by the opportunity to elect the first female president and protect their abortion rights. This could prove to be her superpower at the ballot box. But could it provoke a backlash, with men delivering for Donald Trump in the battleground states?
I am getting strong Amber Heard versus Johnny Depp vibes about the impending political showdown. Then, the two actors existed in an Alice Through the Looking Glass world, where all logic was reversed. In a #MeToo backlash, Depp presented himself as the victim and won $15 million in damages from Heard after she claimed to have suffered domestic violence at his hands. Many women and men viewed the verdict through a totally different lens. Who will win the battle of the sexes in Harris versus Trump? The good news for Democrats is that women vote more consistently than men, by 52 to 48 per cent , according to the Brookings Institution.
Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, and her husband, Doug Emhoff, valiantly presented an image of masculinity at the Democratic convention last week that was comfortable in a supporting role. “That’s my dad!” — the tearful cry of pride by Gus Walz, a neuro-diverse 17-year-old, was mocked by conservatives on social media, but touched many hearts. Tina Brown, who has a 38-year-old son, Georgie, on the spectrum, wrote movingly in the New York Times: “I recognised him immediately as one of ‘ours’, a sweet, unfiltered, slightly bewildered-looking young man who wasn’t quite sure what was expected of him in this epic moment of political adulation.”
I’m getting strong Amber Heard v Johnny Depp vibes about the political showdown
The Trump campaign has adopted a more aggressive, bullying tone. Aided by his running-mate JD Vance, his trio of sons Don Jr, Eric and Barron, and new friend Robert F Kennedy Jr, Trump is running a testosterone-fuelled campaign. With Melania and Ivanka missing in action, this tactic is succeeding with men — perhaps all the more so as Harris gathers support. According to an analysis in the New York Times, all men favour Trump. Moreover, young men aged 18 to 34 support Trump by more than 10 points, roughly the same margin as men aged over 65. By the same token, all women support Harris over Trump to varying degrees. But there is an astonishing 51-point Gez Z gender gap with young women aged 18 to 34, who support Harris by 38 points.
The machismo of the Trump campaign is a turn-off for women and a bonus for men. “I was sort of like a hot guy. I was hot as a pistol,” Trump boasted at a rally in the Bronx, New York. “Was I hotter before or hotter now? I don’t know. Who the hell knows?” I can answer that one. To me, Trump looks pale, podgy and out of shape, as you would expect from a 78-year-old junk food enthusiast, but he talks a good game, pads his shoulders and hides his facial bags with bronzer. In the eyes of his supporters, he is a buffed superstar.
Kennedy, 70, has a six-pack honed by a life at the gym. He has admitted to taking testosterone replacement therapy (but has denied allegations of steroid use). Well into middle-age, he pranked New Yorkers by dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park. His daughter claims he cut off the head of a whale with a chainsaw and drove it home on the roof of the family car, with foul-smelling “whale juice” leaking through the windows. Who does that? He used to be a friend of Jeffrey Epstein and is a self-confessed sex-addict, who slept with 37 women in a year and graded his conquests from one to 10.
On these grounds alone, RFK Jr holds zero appeal for me, never mind his addiction to conspiracy theories and anti-vaxxer views. But after he endorsed Trump on Friday, Tucker Carlson and other male media stars have been fawning over him. RFK Jr was the star guest yesterday on Carlson’s show, live-streamed to Carlson’s 13 million followers on X, where the two men cackled and bonded over the alleged disrespect shown by Harris, who refused to barter for Junior’s vote.
Barron Trump, 18, is also having an impact behind the scenes on his dad’s campaign. One of his friends is 17-year-old conservative influencer Bo Loudon. Together they encouraged Trump to appear on Adin Ross’s show on Twitch (where the 23-year-old has seven million followers) and on the comedian Theo Von’s YouTube podcast (with its three million subscribers). The teetotal Trump appeared genuinely fascinated with Von’s former cocaine addiction. Was it “too much to handle?” he asked. In addition, Barron has helped to change Trump’s mind on the merits of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.
And, of course, in the tank for Trump is the world’s richest and most powerful male influencer, Elon Musk, the owner of X. The Wall Street Journal has just published a fascinating article on Musk’s “hard turn” to politics in 300,000 words, with scatter graphs of his 42,000 social media exchanges in the last five years. These show Musk going from posting memes, dad jokes and news about his business ventures, such as Tesla and SpaceX, to venting about the Democrats, welcoming the far-Right on his platform and personally interviewing Trump.
Aided by his running-mate JD Vance, and his sons Don Jr, Eric and Barron, Trump is running a testosterone-fuelled campaign
Harris has her own alternative eco-sphere, made up of Swifties, Beyonce and Charlie XCX fans. But she also has a crucial issue driving women voters to her side: abortion. Women’s voting power was harnessed by Democrats during the 2022 midterm congressional elections, when a predicted Republican “red wave” failed to materialise. Then, as Forbes magazine put it, women were “furious, frightened and voting” after the Supreme Court threw out Roe versus Wade and handed their reproductive rights to male politicians in state legislatures.
This year, Harris’s emergence in the race has turbo-charged female voting registration in the states where figures are available. The anger of 2022 has been replaced by excitement and hope. In the battleground state of Michigan, for instance, nearly seven per cent more women than men have registered to vote since Joe Biden was dumped.
The polls used to underestimate Trump’s support. This November, the situation could be reversed. The pollsters are always fighting the last war and have been adjusting their Trump figures to include seemingly low-propensity voters who have been telling them to get stuffed rather than answer their questions. But women could turn out to vote for Harris in unprecedented numbers. This is the crucial “known unknown” hanging over the 2024 election.
Johnny Depp went from being a loser in court during his UK libel case against the Sun to triumphing against Amber Heard. Trump has been on the back foot in the past month but could yet win. Only the women of America can stop him.
