Is there anyone actually surprised that the population of London is within a squeak of exceeding its pre-pandemic levels, according to the Centre for Cities. That is, just over 10 million. And the reason is down to the simple reality that an awful lot of the people who come to the UK gravitate — surprise! —to London. The capital takes in more than a third of incomers, some 35 per cent, possibly more. And so the more immigration goes up, the more the London population rises. It really is that basic.
There are other factors too, not least employers taking an increasingly dim view of the Covid illusion that we should all work from home, including an awful lot of the civil service and, more terrifyingly, workers in air traffic control. So those who opted for the pandemic idyll of a country retreat plus Zoom are now either having to commute via Southern Rail (will you get in on time for work, or won’t you?) or return to the rental rat race.
But that’s much less important than the larger issue of increasing numbers coming into the country with over a third heading for London. In 2022, net migration (so, not the overall number) was 745,000. Last year the UK granted a total of 1.4 million visas, of which the great majority were for work (616,371) including dependents; students (605,000) including dependents. So if over a third of these come to London... that’s an awful lot. It ought to go without saying that many will contribute to the economy, not least the higher education sector. It’s not the point.
And there’s no sign the pressure is going to ease soon. In the Budget, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, suggested, not entirely convincingly, that net numbers may fall to 350,000 a year. That’s still a figure that would have looked eye-watering when David Cameron took office in 2010. It would still amount to another 9 million by 2046. That translates into at least another 3 million for London. Would Labour would be any different? Nope. Not on previous form.
The question is as practical in its implications as it’s possible to get. Been in a doctor’s surgery lately looking for an appointment? Or — bad luck, you — in A&E? Tried getting a flat to rent? Or getting your child onto the list of an oversubscribed school? These are all times when you register that the growth in population is something that affects us all, though less the rich, obviously. And that’s without taking the invisible aspects into account — infrastructure like sewerage and roads.
There comes a point where the pressures from migration exceed the evident good
Naturally any big capital city as dynamic as London is going to exert a gravitational pull on people from other parts of the world. It’s always been so.
And parts of London’s eco-system plainly flourish with the influx of outside talent. Can you imagine the Francis Crick Institute or the Royal Opera House without incomers? They couldn’t function just with home talent. Or NHS surgeons? Or restaurants? Take a look, say, at any branch of Ottolenghi.
But there comes a point where the pressures from migration exceed the evident good —the buzz, the cultural cross-fertilisation, the food on the South Bank. A rational audit of the benefits of large scale immigration and the costs would conclude London is struggling under the weight of numbers.
It’s time for government and City Hall to take seriously the numbers question as it affects the capital. The population of London has increased, is increasing and is unsustainable. This calls for a measured, rational debate, not slogans. But it must start now.
