There are two ways to change a political party: from without or within. Tony Blair and Jeremy Corbyn both bent Labour to their will, albeit with differing electoral results. Conversely, Nigel Farage successfully forced the Conservatives to adopt his views on Europe and immigration through his use of the media and leadership of more than one rival party.
So my question is this: what is the Popular Conservatism movement? Yet another pressure group within the Tory Party, or something else? And if it isn't sure, does that blur the gap between where the Conservatives end and Reform UK begins?
This new organisation, inevitably dubbed the PopCons, held its launch rally today at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. With speeches from Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg and former deputy Conservative Party chair Lee Anderson, it looked a lot like the latest Tory ballad of dissatisfaction.
In her address, Truss criticised the government for failing to take on “left-wing extremists”, and warned that there was a “damaging divide” between politicians and ordinary people who “think the wokery that’s going on is nonsense”.
Looking on was Nigel Farage who, though not a speaker himself, was happy to talk to just about any journalist hoping to ask a question. The former Ukip and Brexit Party leader denied that he wants to join the Conservatives “at the moment, given what they stand for," stating “I’d rather be part of Reform, because that’s the real thing.”
Whether PopCon is a group pressuring the Tories from without or within, it is yet another one calling for the party to cut taxes, further restrict immigration, scrap net zero and leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Is that more Reform or the platform of the next Conservative Party leader?
Speaking to GB News, Rees-Mogg said of Farage: “Nigel is a very welcome visitor to the Popular Conservatism event, but he’s also someone with whom many Conservatives agree on most of the big issues, that Nigel is essentially a Conservative in most of his views.”
Such is the makeup of Tory MPs today – and whatever is left after the election – that we can expect the party to continue its rightward shift in opposition. Hotshot candidates such as Mhairi Fraser, standing in the safe seat of Epsom and Ewell and a speaker at today's event, are further evidence of that. It is not inconceivable that Kemi Badenoch, no one's idea of a wet, becomes the effective candidate of the Tory left.
On reflection, I'm not sure my questions at the start were the right ones. Clearly, from an electoral perspective, it matters a great deal how many candidates Reform put up, how much support they garner and what that does to Conservative representation in the next parliament. But in terms of the future direction of the Tory Party, that appears to be a fait accompli.
In the comment pages, Anne McElvoy predicts a whole cascade of change will follow the King's cancer diagnosis. Nimco Ali says she was nearly killed by the FGM she suffered, and calls the fight against it is far from over. While Dylan Jones reflects on the King Charles he knows, and a surprising similarity to Keith Richards.
And finally, George Chesterton watched Rishi Sunak-Piers Morgan so you didn't have to.
