Among the loud political debate over the King’s Speech, the continuing drama from the US and the relationship setting at the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire today, there will be few column inches given to the Conservatives this week. Or next. Even the week after. Many reading this — and certainly London’s many Labour supporters — will say good, 14 years was enough. The Tories had their turn. And that is true. But a healthy Opposition is the backbone of a functioning democracy, and without a figurehead no serious opposition groundwork can begin.
There may be those of you who, like me, feel deeply uneasy about the manifesto pledge to lower the voting age to 16 in a time of aggressive political social media targeting. Local communities will be in uproar over imposed housing measures. Forty bills will begin their long journey today, many of them highly contentious, and they need proper scrutiny, not Liberal Democrat high-fiving or Nigel Farage grandstanding.
The schedule for the Conservative leadership race will be finalised this week and the October party conference will be where the final candidate will be chosen from a choice of two. It can’t come soon enough.
Of the front-runners, my instincts at this stage incline towards the impressive Kemi Badenoch, with the caveat that these are early observations in the competition. The party is rightly nervous about choosing a leader and experienced grandees are warning members to look for imaginative policy and a coherent vision for the future from the candidates, who include Dame Priti Patel and probably James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick. An ability to unify is the bare minimum.
There are few blows Keir Starmer can land on her: a smart woman and seasoned politician
Front-runners in a long race can also easily fall. For now, Badenoch remains the favourite. What are her advantages? Firstly, she will be the one most likely to hold Sir Keir Starmer to account at the Despatch Box. There will be few personal blows he can land on her — a smart, erudite woman and seasoned politician who stood up to his prevaricating nonsense over the biological status of a woman. She has proved she can land disciplined hits on her political foes and win. If you fail in that key role, you will not last as leader.
Secondly, the evidence is that Badenoch is very much across her brief and the detail. A senior, respected civil servant who worked with her when she was Secretary of State for Business and Trade describes her considered diligence before decision-making. In opposition you have no civil servant support, and the new leader must lead by example, doing the hard grind of filleting out key division lines in the small print which will have strategic impact. It is, according to those who were there in 2005, relentless hard grunt work coupled with many dispiriting setbacks.
Thirdly, to survive you need backbone, plus a grip on cunning gameplay — all of which her rise in the party shows: from London Assembly Member to MP, minister and secretary of state. She has demonstrated she has principles and red lines. Our national politics needs an injection of principles. There is an overload of cynicism hovering over Westminster — voter trust at its lowest ebb.
She is a proven warrior: an intelligent firebrand is no bad thing, but having spoken to party insiders, they want to be assured in the coming weeks that Badenoch demonstrates consistent mature leadership. Badenoch is also clearly capable of initiating media cut-through. When no one wants to hear from your party as it flounders in the electoral wilderness, carefully orchestrated media moments are key. Much was made of Badenoch’s recent leaked comments on Suella Braverman having “a very public breakdown”. Well, the flip-side is that it showed flair for rhetorical dexterity and humour, while hitting her target. Job done. But it cannot happen again in this campaign.
There are doubts about whether Badenoch can balance compromise with her clear drive. If she wins convincingly, can she persuade other senior figures to pull together for the hard climb ahead? The leader is going to need the Gareth Southgate touch. For this reason, there may be a sigh of relief if the former home secretary James Cleverly wins it — he is an incredibly liked and likeable figure. The concern is whether, one year or two years on, they regret the steady-as-they-go approach? The Conservatives need an individual who can also inspire, show up Reform’s divisive populism, loosen the Lib-Dem grip, sprinkle a little magic dust and ensure a few bust ups with Labour.
At this stage I believe Badenoch may be the one to do that. We will see in the coming weeks. And possibly, if she prevails, the years to come. The race is on.
