It’s by-election season in Westminster — and more’s at stake than simply whether Team Boris’s kamikaze mission to wound Rishi Sunak with three MP resignations will have its desired effect. After the former prime minister and his two supporters – Nigel Adams and Nadine Dorries – quit in a row over peerages, the Tories are facing the unappetising prospect of trying to keep hold of Uxbridge and South Ruislip (majority 7,210), Selby and Ainsty (20,137) and Mid Bedfordshire (24,664) should Dorries actually get round to officially handing in her notice anytime soon.
With the Tories still trailing in the polls, it’s little wonder that the opposition parties are licking their lips at the prospect. But the votes should not just offer a taste of the public mood, they will lift the lid on the two main parties’ differing approaches to candidate selection. Should Labour take all three, Parliament will welcome three Starmtroopers — loyal, well-behaved MPs picked in the image of their leader. If the Tories manage to hold even one, there’s only a reasonable chance that they will be less problematic to Sunak than the MP they replace.
This divide goes to the heart of the biggest change quietly happening in politics right now: candidate selection. Given the past two elections were snap polls, there wasn’t much time for the two major parties to pick the MPs of tomorrow. Both the Tories and Labour have since paid the price. One former cabinet minister puts many of Boris Johnson’s troubles with parliamentary management down to the fact that they didn’t expect to win many of the red wall seats so they picked candidates who in other circumstances would not have passed the test. In Labour, aides put their substandard MPs down to a mix of Corbynite factionalism and picking at speed. Hastily picked candidates Claudia Webbe (2019) and Jared O’Mara (2017) have ended up out of the party and in court.
In a bid to remedy this, Starmer has adopted a new approach to picking MPs. The party is well ahead of the Tories, with well over half of candidates selected. The party has historically been far more relaxed than the Tories when it comes to selecting candidates. Under Tony Blair, plenty of Left-wingers were selected from Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Bob Marshall Andrews and Bernie Grant. This time around you’ll struggle to find a Corbynite on the candidate list.
It’s true that there is a stricter process this time around. So far the candidate list is made up of Starmer allies, returning Blairites and Brownites alongside candidates picked for their prior careers — former SAS men and prison guards — rather than time spent dishing out leaflets. If the party goes on to win a majority, close to half the party will be new MPs. It’s why Starmer’s head honcho — or Svengali, depending on who you speak to — Morgan McSweeney has adopted a tight-gripped approach to candidate selections, with extra vetting. The strategy is based on making sure they can govern effectively even if Starmer falls short of a majority — or wins by a handful of seats. The shadow leader of the House, Thangam Debbonaire, is working up plans to train newbie MPs quickly, given it will be one of the greenest parties in some time.
In contrast, the Tory selections are about to kick into full swing — for the seats for the next election, with most selection battles taking place from spring into the summer. Sunak has already been accused by the Right of the party for trying to ‘stitch up’ safe seats in favour of ‘blue prince’ candidates. But there are candidates on the official list who have been critical of Sunak in the past in a way that is not the case with Labour’s. Take Lord Frost, the former Brexit negotiator, who has won a comprehensive pass, the highest category allowing the most seats.
Given the turmoil of the past year, ministers are braced for the Tory associations, which have the final say, on the candidates given to them to pick from, to veer away from those who look as though they are the central office pick. As Tory chairman, Nadhim Zahawi discussed getting headhunters to bring in the right candidates. It’s an idea that ministers like. “You tend to get the wrong candidates if they are coming to you,” says a senior minister. “It should be the other way round.”
It’s why for all the complaints from the Labour Left over Starmer’s approach, many in government would like Sunak to do the same.
Katy Balls is political editor of the Spectator
