Across the Middle East, Dahiya, in south Beirut, is seen as not just a suburb. It is a synonym for Hezbollah. This is not only the movement’s stronghold, it is the headquarters of what is in Lebanon a state within a state. That an Israeli drone strike could kill the deputy head of Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, and several aides at a meeting in the heart of Dahiya has shocked the region and left it asking one question. Is war about to break out between Hezbollah, Iran’s highly-armed proxy, and Israel?
The truth is that a border war between Israel and Lebanon has already been rumbling since October 8, when Hezbollah, the day after Hamas’s massacre, began firing rockets at Israeli positions. Almost as many Hezbollah fighters have died as Israeli soldiers have been lost in the Gaza ground offensive. And in recent days, the strength of the volley has been picking up — with Israel even knocking out a Hezbollah commander in the field. Given that a border war could ignite a regional war, potentially dragging in both Iran and the United States, why are both sides willing to risk all out and massive destruction?
