The natural but unspoken response of many of us to Israel’s “limited, localised and targeted ground raids” against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, or, as others might put it, the invasion of a neighbouring country, will be to feel very sorry for the civilian casualties of the conflict but to thank God that it’s not us. The invasion plainly risks the escalation of the conflict, but poor, tortured Lebanon is usefully far away, no?
Well, actually, not that far. Just across the Mediterranean, in fact. And if the numbers of refugees fleeing Lebanon for Syria (in a curious reversal of the situation in 2015 during the Syrian civil war) escalate to a million people as a result of Israeli actions — the figure the Lebanese prime minister puts on the number of displaced people — then the situation will have a direct impact on us. Even the present estimate of 200,000 people displaced by the conflict is troubling.
You know why, don’t you? Those people may well refuse to remain in the region — Lebanon has undergone one catastrophe after another in the last four years, and Syria is still traumatised by the after-effects of the civil war. So where are they going to go? Yes, that’s right. A significant number are going to seek to enter Europe, with the happy effects on European politics that we have already seen. The increase in the number of migrants seeking to cross the Channel will be the merest blip — though still politically toxic — by comparison with the influx that frontline European states will weather, chiefly Italy and Greece, and ultimately Germany.
During the last big migrant influx, the difference was that Europe was sympathetic to the plight of the refugees
Back in 2015 during the last big migrant influx, the difference was that Europe was sympathetic to the plight of the refugees. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, was moved by pity (one refugee child appealed to her better nature) to admit no fewer than a million refugees to Germany, just over half from Syria, with a significant component coming from other troubled areas, and the consequences for Germany were profound. She hailed the influx with the cheering words, “Wir schaffen es” (“we’ll sort it”) but the upshot in terms of community cohesion and terrorist attacks has not validated her optimism. In short, Angela, Sie haben es nicht geschafft — you actually didn’t sort it. And the victories — long after her resignation — in regional elections for the Alternative fur Deutschland and the Bund Sara Wagenknecht, populist, anti-immigration parties both, has shown just how that plays out with the disgruntled population, particularly in East Germany.
The actions of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in displacing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians, not to mention the tens of thousands of traumatised refugees in Gaza, has, then, already created a situation that will give rise to a greater influx of refugees to Europe. Last time, in 2015, Europe was preserved from unmanageable numbers by the handsome EU subsidies hastily directed to Turkey to persuade it to contain hundreds of thousands of the migrants, rather than allowing them access to Greece and the Balkans and from there, the rest of Europe. That may not work this time round; Turkey may justifiably feel it has accommodated enough people.
So, Israel’s actions against Hamas in Gaza and its invasion of Lebanon will have a direct and measurable impact on Europe (is it still ok to talk about “us” and “our” in terms of Europe, post-Brexit?): our infrastructure, our communities, our housing, our fund of hospitality. That is one of the factors that the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, must spell out to the US administration and to whichever of the presidential candidates gets in. It’s all very well for the US to underwrite every action of the Israeli government (while calling at the same time for a ceasefire), which is under the malign influence of minority extremist parties, but the US will not be paying the price, will it? The price of the current conflict is being borne primarily by Palestinians in the occupied territories, secondly by Lebanon (by no means all of whom are enamoured of Hezbollah, particularly its Christian community), and thirdly by Europe. Britain comes a bad fourth here, but we still have an interests in all this, a powerful interest.
Israel’s actions not only are transforming European politics, they’re increasing the cost of living
Then there is the subsidiary matter of Israeli attacks on pro-Iranian Houthi groups, the Zaydis in Yemen. One result of that has been drone attacks on two vessels in the Red Sea today. You may forgiveably have forgotten about the Houthis’ particular contribution to the conflict in Gaza, but it was to fire on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, a strategic part of which it controls, thereby forcing, inter alia, Chinese container vessels to avoid this passage altogether and to divert shipping via the bottom end of Africa. Consequently the costs of shipping increased, which fed into higher prices for the goods shipped. It may seem like no bad thing to put a higher price on Chinese plastics, but just bear in mind that practically all the manufactured goods we use come from there (go on, try finding a lavatory brush that isn’t made in China). UK shipping will probably be treated as equivalent to those of the US, given Britain’s solidarity with the US. To put it another way, Israel’s actions not only are transforming European politics, they’re increasing the cost of living. Again, this is something that won’t affect the US; but it affects us.
Then, not least, there is the increased risk of reprisal attacks by Islamic extremists here for Israeli actions on British Jews. The Mayor, Sadiq Khan, has spoken about a potential increase in “hate crime” in response to “an escalation in conflict in the Middle East”. So, London’s Jewish community, which has borne the brunt of insult and aggression in the wake of the Israeli response to Hamas’s atrocities of 7th October may be subjected to further intimidation. It is intolerable that Jews in London should bear the brunt of the reaction by Muslim extremist groups to actions for which they are not in any way accountable, but we’ve already seen how these things play out. We must, then, be more vigilant to protect our Jewish colleagues, neighbours and friends as a result of events happening far from here, whose repercussions are nonetheless felt here. And the police will, as ever, have to deal with the fallout, at public expense.
In other words, the actions of the Israeli government, however gratifying in the short term, will have a malign effect on its neighbours, the region, and on Europe. The US, however, will, except in reputation, be immune to all this. It is for our diplomats to point out to our American friends, including both presidential candidates, that they cannot simply underwrite every action of the borderline lunatic who presides over the Israeli government. It’s others who will bear the brunt.
