Today, the electoral path to the next Tory government (if there is one) is narrower than ever. Thanks to the rise of Reform UK and the prospect of a structural split in the right-wing vote. Yet whilst most commentary has focused on Nigel Farage’s success in the so-called Red Wall, just as worrying for Conservative strategists is that Reform is now outpolling the Tories in London.
Indeed, perhaps it ought to be more worrying. The Red Wall, after all, is about rebuilding Boris Johnson’s path to an overall majority; London is more a question of outright survival. If Reform can supplant the Conservatives in this country’s most metropolitan region, it can probably do it anywhere.
