A century ago, in the general election of October 1924, Stanley Baldwin achieved a majority of 210 for the Conservatives; modestly describing the landslide as “a magnificent opportunity for service”. Though it is true that the National Government formed after the October 1931 election boasted a governing majority of no less than 492, this coalition aggregate included seats held by Ramsay MacDonald’s National Labour, the Conservatives and some Liberals. Baldwin holds the undisputed modern record for a single party victory. And, on July 4, that record could fall to Sir Keir Starmer.
This, at any rate, is what MRP polls unambiguously suggest. These mega-surveys are more accurate because they involve very large samples of respondents and take account of different demographic groups rather than assuming a uniform national swing (MRP, if you’re interested, stands for “multi-level regression and post-stratification”).
