Donald Trump has promised to settle the Ukraine war within 24 hours – and so many expect a difficult peace, a “dirty deal” according to Max Hastings, early next year. Russian forces are now on a roll, pushing along nearly 800 miles of front in Ukraine itself, and squeezing Ukraine forces in the pocket of Russian territory round Kursk they took last summer.
Any deal for ceasefire and armistice wouldn’t be Trump’s but Putin’s. Right now, Putin’s team have said they are no mood for talks to end the war. In the past two days, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Moscow foreign ministry and Putin superfan, has said talks could only begin if western powers agreed to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons completely.
Putin wants to declare outright victory in his hugely costly war, cancelling Ukraine as a viable independent state. Russia wants all the territory seized so far, guaranteed neutrality for Ukraine, the likely departure of Volodymyr Zelensky from public life, and a buffer zone between Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
So have the Trump peace supporters overplayed their hand – promising what can’t be delivered? With Putin intent on continuing the war, however, there is a growing sense that he may have overplayed his hand. Russia seems to be heading for trouble in 2025 that will affect us all, major European powers such as Britain, France and Germany, especially.
The pointer to Russia’s looming crisis is summed up in two words: North Korea.
Putin’s main war aim in the short term is to get Ukrainian forces out of Kursk by the end of the year. He has assembled an army of 50,000 to do it, and the Russians are gaining ground – at horrendous cost. They need the reinforcement of a contingent of 10,000 North Korean soldiers to bolster their attack force.
The North Korean dictator seems to gain more than Putin from the deal
Losses are mounting. October was the worst month of the war for serious casualties, with over 40,000 killed and injured. Total Russian casualties are now put at 710,000 since February 2022, according to published intelligence. Ukraine losses are heavy, but kept secret – and successfully so.
Dependence on North Korea extends beyond personnel and reinforcements. Half of all medium and heavy artillery shells now fired by Russian guns come from North Korea. Russia is currently losing about 100 tanks and a total of 320 tank and artillery barrels a month, and can only manufacture 20 replacement barrels in the same period. So, Russia will be running out of major weapons systems for the ground war by next August – unless it can persuade China to open its deep military arsenals. And that is a very big “if”.
“I don’t think the media has made nearly enough of the appearance of North Koreans fighting alongside the Russians, which makes them co-combatants,” a senior official with direct Ukraine experience remarked to me this week. He conjectured that the supply of 10,000 North Koreans to Kursk may be just the beginning of a very big development, with the possibility of 100,000 North Koreans being deployed to Russia in the coming months.
This Monday, Kim Jong Un ratified and published the “Treaty of Comprehensive Partnership” between North Korea and Russia, which was agreed at the meeting between the two leaders in Pyongyang last June. Article 4 says that if one of the partners enters a state of war and invasion the other “shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possessions.” This might mean the use of nuclear weapons.
The North Korean dictator seems to gain more than Putin from the deal. He breaks out of isolation. Putin needs tens of thousands of North Koreans to manage his parlous security position at home, and the continuing war in Ukraine. More then 500,000 security troops are deployed for internal security – and because of the huge demands of the war economy, no more recruits are available.
For Putin and for China there is another nightmare scenario for North Korea’s break-out from isolation. It is being put forward by credible intelligence sources. This is the possible movement of thousands of ill-nourished North Koreans across the narrow border on the Tumen River, the tripoint where the territories of China, Russia and North Korea meet. Already thousands of Chinese cross regularly from China into Russia’s remote and underpopulated Asia east. A concerted push by desperate North Koreans cannot be ruled out.
There is a growing view that Putin cannot afford peace now – and rather like Napoleon Bonaparte his military machine, totalitarian regime, and economy rely on continuing war, and conquest. Conquest and occupation of more of Ukraine would mean the need of an occupying army. In war and peace, Vladimir could become hostage to his North Korean adventure.
This means trouble all round for all of us in the European neighbourhood.
Robert Fox is the Standard’s Defence Editor
