France, at the end of an extraordinary week, is stranded between the (loss of) power - and the glory it loves to project to the outside world. On Saturday, President Emmanuel Macron attends the reopening of the magnificently restored Notre Dame cathedral after the disastrous fire of 2019 reduced its medieval grandeur to soot and ashes.
The re-opening reflects the “Jupiter” trait of Mr Macron: assiduously weaving his political journey into the national story. The event was also intended as a mid-term boost to his popularity – his term runs until 2027. A visit by President-elect Donald Trump, his first to Europe since being voted back into the White House, should also have been confirmation of Mr Macron’s elder-statesman role in Europe, as a leader in office since 2017 (which these days, is quite a feat).
But the festivities cannot disguise the hollowing out of centrist rule in France. The collapse of the government on Wednesday, under pressure from Marine Le Pen’s far right and a squabblesome centre and recalcitrant Left, led to the resignation of Michel Barnier – the erstwhile Brexit negotiator and haut fonctionnaire of French Conservatives, turned emergency PM.
Britain's Brexiteers, who were deemed by Mr Barnier to have “a special place in hell” for not planning what would follow, might allow themselves the riposte that there is also room down there for French governments who precipitate early elections – and then lose them and are unable to forge majorities for their plans (memories of Theresa May and Boris Johnson before prorogation do keep creeping in).
Mr Macron can appoint another prime minister – the third in a year. Banking on the instability of his opponents in National Rally (on the right) and La France Insourmise (the “Rebellious France”) movement on the far left has not however achieved his goal of shoring up support for moderates of the centre-left and traditional Conservatives.
The effect is not unlike the post-Brexit malaise which afflicted the UK
The effect is not unlike the post-Brexit malaise which afflicted the UK: a parliamentary system built to preserve and magnify majorities is breaking down under the fragmentation of the political spectrum and an Establishment leader (David Cameron here, Mr Macron there) gambled on public opinion swinging behind him if put to the test – and lost.
This doomed course was embarked on after losing a snap parliamentary election this summer, called after he had also had a trouncing in the EU elections two months earlier. The intention was to confront voters with the consequences of Marine Le Pen’s far-right rise and blunt her chances of further success.
The outcome, alas, has emboldened Ms Le Pen’s protest movement, with ever-stronger nationalist and isolationist overtones – while still allowing her freedom from fiscal responsibility. Mr Barnier's budget, which featured €60bn (£49bn) in cuts to fund a deficit reduction, was the final straw for his premiership. It has also allowed those who oppose it on the right and left to destabilise French politics, without having to offer any credible recipe to address the country’s public finances themselves.
The biggest shift is in the stature of its leader – from hero of centrist Europe to near-zero hope of recovering his lustre
Neither can France in its current state deliver on its previous convening power. The biggest shift is in the stature of its leader – from hero of centrist Europe to near-zero hope of recovering his lustre. When I came across Mr Macron at international events over the years, his confidence on the global stage as a banker who understands the Anglosphere and transatlantic relations was striking.
Yes, there was the "Jupiter” arrogance critics complain about. Yet there was also a winning confidence many other leaders lacked. I remember, for instance, a speech he gave at an environmental summit, pointing out that the fundamentalist framing of Green issues by Greta Thunberg, while well-intended, would end up with a backlash because it was too uncompromising and harsh on the gradualism of governments, who needed to listen to voters as well as activists. Not many other leaders at that point would have taken on Ms Thunberg with serious arguments - which were also proved to be absolutely right.
Even his flamboyant attacks on "brain-dead" NATO pointed out something the Western alliance needed to hear about its lack of readiness for global conflict, and although he first kowtowed to Vladimir Putin, he made the right call to reverse that and be a stalwart supporter of Ukraine.
The domestic front has been a less secure battlefield. He relied on symbolism and he has been unpersuasive inside his own country on actual policies. The Paris Olympics, intended to boost a sense of unity, had a short-lived gloire succeeded by a return to sullenness,
The Macron who boasted of a “strategic Europe” as a counterweight to US interests is reduced to trying to stymie the EU’s Mercosur free trade deal with Latin America, which the Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, is determined to push through this week. France, one of the erstwhile two great powers in the EU with Germany, now finds itself sidelined in these matters, entangled in domestic feuds. The President will give a television address to the nation - in essence a signal that he has no intention of leaving his post in the present turmoil.
But presidential addresses now look more like mere waymarkers on the road to chaos than a moment to rally an anxious nation. The search for another luckless PM who can try to patch together a parliamentary solution is underway. The winners are the political forces who amplify France’s grievances - left and right - ultimately to the detriment of Europe.
Its leader, as one foe puts it, resembles "a cut-down Republican monarch". The Jupiter days are done.
