Europeans, like much of the world, cannot vote in American elections. We watch, nervously from afar, wondering what the autoworkers of Michigan and croupiers in Nevada will decide – or at least the 50-55 per cent who turn out.
It’s frustrating, bordering on an injustice, given the outsized influence presidential elections (in reality, many state races too) have on the future direction of our own politics, prosperity and security. But that is the price we pay for living in the shadow of a global hegemon, even one as historically benevolent as the United States.
Take the war in Ukraine. It is taking place on our continent, yet it has only heightened the reality that Europe is still hugely dependent on American military might. It is the US, not the UK or France, let alone Germany, that remains the guarantor of European security. This despite the fact the EU’s economy, at roughly $17trn, is only slightly less than the US’s $23trn but vastly greater than Russia’s $1.8trn.
The deal is therefore something like this: the US guarantees European security, primarily through Nato, and in return enjoys leverage over the continent. Not unlike the long-established rule for couples and parents planning weddings: “If you pay, you have a say”.
Of course, this hasn’t prevented the US from trying to cajole Europeans into doing more. All Nato members are supposed to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence – many simply don’t. While the US allocates 3.5 per cent of its massive annual output to defence, Italy manages 1.51 per cent, Germany 1.49 per cent and Spain 1.09 per cent.
It is not only Donald Trump who is unhappy about this. In his final policy speech as Barack Obama’s defence secretary in 2011, Robert Gates made a blunt call for Nato allies to spend more on defence. It didn’t really work, but Europe could hardly say it wasn’t warned.
This newsletter is tangentially about Trump’s indictment for alleged hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, a porn star. Having been the first president to take office without any prior military or governing experience and the first to be impeached twice, he now becomes the first former president to face criminal charges.
Of course, US politics is so strange and polarised that this indictment might not do him much harm, as Sarah Baxter reports in today’s paper. His party is not about to turn its back on him. And in further good news for the Trump campaign, there is no legal bar to running for president from a jail cell, should things get that far.
But whether Trump wins again or not, the old shibboleths are crumbling. Under Biden, the US – already quiet quitting the Middle East – sees Asia as the primary location and China the principal geopolitical rival amid a return of great power competition. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put Europe back on the map, but only temporarily. Meanwhile, Trump’s main rival for the Republican nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is hardly a transatlanticist either.
European leaders could conclude that Trump is toast and keep crossing their fingers in the hope that Democrats win every presidential election from now until the end of the republic. Or, they could suit up, just in case.
In the comment pages, Emily Sheffield warns that if we keep turning a blind eye to the post-pandemic spike in fraud, it will corrode public trust. Emily also reflects on the feedback she received from last week’s column suggesting the next election could be closer than many think. While Paul Flynn has written a lovely tribute to Paul O’Grady.
And finally, Josh Barrie’s ‘dishes that can do one’ column this week is literally about a dish, one that lies within the uncanny valley between bowl and plate and usually spells trouble for unwitting diners: blates. Which don’t even fit in the dishwasher.
Have a lovely weekend.
