Firstly, are you ok? Today marks the seventh anniversary of the EU referendum, in which Britain stepped back from the brink and voted narrowly to remain in the bloc. Wake up, Jack, wake up! Time for school! Sorry, voted 52-48 to leave.
The intervening period has been a bumpy one for the British economy and our political system as a whole. I don’t intend to comb through the economic impact today. No one wants to read about trade intensity and phytosanitary products on a Friday. Alright, maybe David Henig. So if you are interested in how much Brexit has cost us, read this piece by Jonathan Portes.
Instead, I want to touch on voter attitudes today and where we go from here. And we start with some fascinating polling compiled by UK in a Changing Europe and Public First. They find that fewer than one in five leave voters think Brexit is going well. Rejoice! It’s full-fat Schengen and euro notes, right? Not so fast. They also find a quarter think it’s too soon to tell, while two-thirds of leavers are opposed to a second referendum.
But that’s leavers. What about the broader public? New polling from the Tony Blair Institute finds that Britons have indeed changed their minds. 53 per cent now think the UK was wrong to leave the EU, versus 34 per cent who believe it was the right decision. It attributes this shift in attitudes to a minority of leave voters changing their minds, and the more pro-European views of younger voters entering the electorate.
It’s a laughably big ‘if’, but if a rejoin referendum were held today, it reckons 51 per cent would support rejoining as opposed to 36 per cent against. The more interesting question to my mind relates to public attitudes toward closer ties with the EU, albeit outside of bloc. The Institute finds that Britons “overwhelmingly” support closer EU relations – 78 per cent.
Clearly, there are things Britain could do to move closer to the EU. But pretty quickly, remainers are at risk of themselves being accused of cakeism. As the FT’s Peter Foster has been pointing out for months, unless you want to rejoin the single market and customs union – which Keir Starmer has been clear he does not – it’s not all that easy to ‘fix’ the deficiencies in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
Speaking of whom, there is a very good reason why Starmer, until recently a passionate advocate of a second referendum, does not even want to be pictured near a blue flag with golden stars. According to a recent Survation poll, the swing Labour is enjoying compared with 2019 is nearly entirely among leave voters.
Despite a narrow referendum vote, roughly two-thirds of parliamentary constituencies opted for leave. And Starmer needs to win a majority of seats. As a result, despite the stirrings of a new remain coalition, and the real economic pain wrought by Brexit, a rejoin platform is likely to be more of a third term Starmer priority. In other words, it is a job for someone else.
That doesn’t mean remainers should give up. Bill Cash and others didn’t when the UK voted to stay following the 1975 referendum. But it will be a long road back.
In the comment pages, Emily Sheffield calls Rishi Sunak a good prime minister, but all things considered she says “it’s good to know that Blair is back.” While Paul Flynn has two words for you: Padam Padam.
And finally, from the relaunch of a renowned gallery to a new football-focused hit at the theatre, Mike Daw has the pick of what to get up to in London this weekend.
Have a good one.
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