Politicians are not widely trusted. In fact, they are the least trusted profession in the UK, with only 12 per cent believing they generally tell the truth. The most trusted are nurses (89 per cent), followed by engineers (87 per cent) and doctors (85 per cent). Journalists are... well, we're above politicians.
Really, what parties ought to do is run generic candidates rather than actual people. For example, a 'generic Democrat' is currently outpolling Joe Biden by a wide margin. But herein lies the problem. Alright, two problems because both the US president and London mayor are positions that, at least for now, must be filled by humans.
Generic candidates almost always outperform real politicians. That is because people can project onto them their ideal person – in other words, someone who doesn't exist. Not least because the 'ideal' will be different for everyone. Real people, on the other hand, have flaws, tweet unhelpful things and make dad jokes.
Right, enough throat-clearing. An exclusive YouGov poll finds that Sadiq Khan leads his Conservative rival Susan Hall by 50 per cent to 25 per cent. Taken at face value, this is a pretty stunning result for Khan, who currently enjoys a net approval rating of -16.
This 25-point lead is also some way above a previous survey by JL Partners, which gave the mayor a slim three-point lead. Both can't be right and it's not immediately obvious which is the outlier, given the relative paucity of polling in this contest, certainly compared with the national vote.
When I last wrote about the mayoral election in late September I stated that, despite all the criticism Hall has faced, some of it self-inflicted, her run could not be discounted for two reasons. First, she will get the standard Conservative tally that any candidate with a blue rosette would command. And second, the change in the voting system to first-past-the-post means that the next mayor could conceivably be elected on less than 40 per cent of the vote.
But a few things would still need to go wrong for Labour that do not seem to be happening. Critically for Khan, this latest poll would suggest that he is already successfully squeezing the vote of smaller parties. Indeed, it has Zoe Garbett of the Greens on 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats' Rob Blackie on 7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Tory candidate has thus far failed to mount a breakthrough.
At first glance, Hall appears unsuited to London. Indeed, her nomination was something of an accident, coming after the withdrawal of Daniel Korski, following allegations of groping. But this is mistaken.
London's reputation as a small 'l' liberal, capital 'l' Labour city, while broadly correct, is often overstated. Around 40 per cent of Londoners voted Leave in 2016, including 57 per cent in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. So, while Ulez extension certainly contributed to the Conservatives' narrow victory in July's by-election, it's worth noting that, if you include its predecessor constituency, that seat has not voted Labour since Harold Wilson's 1966 landslide. Parts of London are really quite Tory.
My view remains that both Khan and Hall are generic candidates of their respective London parties. The Mayor is Remain, green and liberal. The challenger is Leave, pro-car with outer-borough vibes. London is a big city with space for both. Unfortunately for the Tories, particularly 13 years into government, there are simply a few more Labour votes out there.
In the comment pages, Dylan Jones calls free speech the least valued but most important cause today. While Tanya Gold says here's how you can attend a march for Palestine without also scaring Jewish people.
And finally, check out this fascinating piece on a subject I knew nothing about: Lucy Tobin on the cables that keep London running.
