I would be sceptical of post-election analyses in the wake of what is seen as a shock result. For both sides, voting patterns at this point are a sort of Rorschach test – people will see what they want to see. What I offer here is a mix of instinct and conjecture (what’s new, I hear you ask). But it is based on one specific factor that doesn’t come as a shock, and which was predicted to harm the Kamala Harris campaign. We can be certain that the Democrats lost voters because of Gaza. The numbers are stark. Another certainty is that those voters will still not be heard.
In Dearborn, Michigan, the largest majority Arab American city, Joe Biden won in 2020 with around 70% of the vote. Early stats indicate that Harris received something like 40% of the vote. As concerns over the war were raised loudly and specifically, Harris not only continued to ignore and isolate these voices, but also the campaign sent Bill Clinton out to shush them. Harris never even visited the city. But guess who did? That’s right, Donald Trump. And now he’s won in Dearborn and taken all of Michigan.
