When it comes to sports betting, you can pull out all of the stats, trends and spreadsheet models you want and still end up batting less than .500. However, one thing is proving to be more reliable than others when it comes to predicting the outcome of the NBA Finals, and it’s not likely a place you would’ve thought to look…until now.
So what is this magic tool? It’s the betting public.
Since 2005, teams that get 40% or less of the bets wagered in a Finals matchup have gone 14-7 against the spread, according to a tweet from BetMGM’s John Ewing. So basically, people who have bet against the whichever side the public heavily favors during the NBA Finals have won more than 66% of the time.
And it happened again Thursday, when the Boston Celtics came back to beat the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 after receiving just 25% of bets.
25% of bets on @celtics +3.5 at Warriors.
Since 2005, teams getting 40% or less of bets in the NBA Finals have gone 14-7 ATS per @Bet_Labs.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) June 3, 2022
Of course, that’s merely a trend and non-predictive. So if you’re ever privy to that type of information, bet at your own risk. But it does go to show that in sports, nobody really knows what’s going on. The teams we feel the best about are always susceptible to letdowns. So if you feel strongly about what’s going to happen in Game 2, it’s probably worth questioning why.
