The year 2025 was a bizarre one for the ACC. The league’s consensus best team, Miami, stayed home from its championship game, which pitted Virginia against Duke. The Cavaliers lost to the Blue Devils in overtime, blowing a surefire CFP spot and raising the possibility of the league being left out of the dance altogether—until the Hurricanes rode their at-large spot all the way to the national championship game.
In its third year since expanding to California and Texas, the ACC seems less sure than ever what kind of league it wants to be—basketball-first or football-first, high-roller or middle-class, logical or illogical. Make no mistake, though: competition for the crown remains fierce, byzantine tiebreaker rules be damned. Here’s a look at one number that will define every ACC team’s (and Notre Dame’s) regional and national chances in 2026.
