You know who we don’t talk about enough? Brock Purdy.
Just kidding! The final pick in the 2022 NFL draft who led the 49ers to the NFC championship game after taking over in Week 13 as the starting quarterback and going undefeated until he tore his UCL in his throwing elbow in the NFC title game was perhaps the biggest story in the NFL last season. His injured elbow and ensuing recovery have also been the team’s No. 1 headline throughout the offseason.
All of that makes it a little bit head-scratching that NFL Media’s Cynthia Frelund selected Purdy as the 49ers’ most ‘underappreciated’ player. It turns out ‘underappreciated’ is more subtle way of saying ‘underpaid.’
Frelund’s method for determining each NFL team’s most underappreciated player involves their impact on winning relative to their contract. Via NFL.com:
First, I calculate and then rank each player’s season-long contribution metric by team (win share). To sum it up without getting overly technical, the contribution metric (or win share) measures each player’s production during the previous season. The metric encompasses a value for every snap by each player and reveals each player’s contribution to the team’s overall win total. After making those calculations, I factor in each player’s salary by position (contract data via Over The Cap) to add some context around who was being “underappreciated.” I always try to give priority to players who have not switched teams in the current offseason (since it’s harder to be underappreciated by a team you haven’t played for yet), but that keeps getting harder to do, due to tons of free-agent movement. Then I weight players drafted in Round 2 or later who have been to no more than two Pro Bowls and aren’t in the top 10 at their position. That said, the most critical component to this entire method remains the contribution metric.
Frelund, an analytics guru for NFL.com, goes with a numbers-based approach instead of just feeling out which players go underappreciated by fans and analysts. That’s why Purdy, the final pick in last year’s draft, gets the label here. Again, via NFL.com:
Mr. Irrelevant? Not exactly. According to my calculations, Purdy’s first four games played saw the biggest win-share increase for any rookie in the 2022 season. Obviously, his O-line, skill players, defense and coaches all deserve some credit here, too, for all of the support they supplied. Next Gen Stats help tell that story, as Purdy logged eight touchdowns on passes of fewer than 10 air yards from Week 13 through 18 — the second-most in the league over that span. He also averaged 6.5 air yards per attempt during that period, which was the fourth-lowest figure in the NFL. His 123.7 passer rating when not blitzed led the league in this time period, while his 103.1 passer rating vs. zone was third-best. To his credit, he also posted a 101.9 passer rating when under pressure in Weeks 13-18, ranking third.
Ultimately Purdy’s contract is one of the NFL’s most valuable if he’s going to continue running the 49ers’ offense at the level he did last season. Finding good, cheap QB play is the cheat code to building a contender. That’s why QBs on rookie contracts are typically so valuable. With Purdy he has the cheapest possible contract of any drafted rookie QB.
If he continues playing like he did last season he’ll likely land as the team’s most underappreciated player in Frelund’s model until he lands a sizable extension that puts him in line with the rest of the league’s starters at his level.
Luckily for Purdy he’s far from underappreciated in the locker room. His teammates and coaches speak glowingly of him, and they’re handing him the starting QB job again once he returns from injury. If that’s being underappreciated, then maybe it’s not such a bad place to be.
