Voters in regional New South Wales have been putting a stick in the eye of major parties for decades.
Before the community independents changed the urban political landscape, rural and regional electorates in the state had elected independents and defectors from the old parties – Peter Andren, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Gee.
Saturday’s solid win by One Nation’s David Farley is just the most recent example.
Whether the humiliation of the Liberal party is the beginning of the end for the party that was “fleshed out” in 1944 in an electorate that delivered its extraordinary defeat, or the end of the beginning of the conservative party’s reinvention, will take a while to play out.
But for the party that has dominated Australian politics for 75 years to receive just over 12% of the vote speaks to a remarkable loss of public confidence.
Sign up for the Breaking News Australia emailByelections are usually a judgment on the ruling party – as the local government elections in Britain have shown. In this case, it was a judgment on the opposition, although some traditional Labor voters also found their way to One Nation.
Whether One Nation is able to actually hold on to its newly elected representative or develop policies that have any chance of being implemented will also take a while to play out.
If history is any guide, it is likely that Farley will find himself on the crossbenches before he needs to seek re-election in 2027. That is what can happen to One Nation representatives.
A charismatic leader may open the door but is not necessarily good at keeping everyone in the room. Gina Rinehart’s money and Barnaby Joyce’s political experience will help but may not be sufficient.
Farley towered over his leader and declared on election night that this was the “end of the beginning for One Nation”, before she led those attending the victory party with a chant of “Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi”.
Farley is a better calibre of candidate than One Nation has usually been able to recruit, but the strength of his background and experience may also make him less susceptible to the charms of his new leader. His determination to seek public office has seen him flirt with other parties before winning the One Nation preselection.
But the sense of grievance that the party was able to tap into is real and not easily resolved.
The economic and administrative structure that has evolved over the past 30 years cannot simply be blown up in the way that those interviewed by reporters in the electorate said they desired. Reworking the Murray Darling Basin plan to ensure greater equity, reinvesting in health, housing and social infrastructure, providing better pathways to improved quality of life, and restoring a sense of possibility, hope and optimism – these things are not easy without a clear vision and determination. And that is in short supply.
Australian voters are always poised to grizzle, and political leaders are not as adept as they need to be about projecting a real sense of optimism and possibility and making that real. The gap between voter disgruntlement and the skills of leaders has been widening as the long-term shortcomings of the dominant neoliberal model have touched more and more people.
Even though it was a different time and context, there are lessons to be learned from One Nation’s short-term success in Queensland in 1998. The nascent party won 11 seats in the state’s parliament, but by the end of the term, there was only one left – an independent. It took weeks of negotiation before Peter Beattie became premier with the support of independent Peter Wellington.
The voters, in Labor and conservative seats, who delivered One Nation candidates their unexpected seats in the parliament were, to put it in colloquial terms, “pissed off”. Unemployment was high, industries had disappeared, the inability of the Borbidge government to deliver had made people cynical and angry.
Peter Beattie’s sunny demeanour and readiness to listen and act on what he heard restored some confidence, but the real breakthrough was an economic recovery. Unemployment fell below 5%, which for much of the 1990s had seemed like an impossible dream. In the 2001 election, Beattie won 66 of the 89 seats in the parliament, and One Nation was routed.
Independents have always played an important role in Australian politics, a fact that is worth remembering as the 125th anniversary of the first parliament is celebrated.
There were two independents elected in 1901, and in the following half century, 24 were elected as independents and 37 sat on the crossbenches as a result of losing preselection, resigning or being expelled from their parties.
The new wave of independents began in 1990, when Ted Mack became the member for North Sydney by defeating Allegra Spender’s father, John, who had been a doyen of the Liberal party.
When the commentators proclaim that the election of David Farley as the One Nation member for Farrer is a seismic change in Australian politics, it’s worth remembering that elements of this have played out before.
The challenges for the Liberal party are huge, but so too is the challenge for the government to truly hear the grievances and do something about them.
• Julianne Schultz is the author of The Idea of Australia
