The 2024 NFL playoffs are here.
In the AFC, there’s one team familiar with winning the Super Bowl, as the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of a dynasty with three championships over the past five years. Of the other six franchises occupying playoff slots, none have won more recently than 2012, and of the quarterbacks, only Russell Wilson has seen a Super Bowl outside of Patrick Mahomes.
But even for Kansas City, all have questions. The Chiefs lost only one impactful game this season, and yet looked far from perfect. The Buffalo Bills could have the league’s MVP in Josh Allen, but their defense could derail everything. And the Baltimore Ravens are once again a powerhouse, but can they solve their January struggles of recent years?
We dive into the key question facing each AFC playoff team.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Are the tackles going to protect Patrick Mahomes enough?
For most of the season, the Chiefs’ offense was underwhelming. Mahomes was turning the ball over too much in September and October. The receiver group was also racked with injuries, as Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown totaled four games played before Week 16.
Also, the tackles couldn’t block, specifically on the left side. And that issue, more than any other, threatened to derail Kansas City’s three-peat hopes.
Yet in their past three meaningful weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs might have solved the problem. Coach Andy Reid decided to move All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney to tackle while sliding veteran backup Mike Caliendo into Thuney’s original spot. The result has been stark. After allowing 35 sacks through 13 games, Kansas City surrendered only one against the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers in an 11-day span, helping the Chiefs clinch the AFC’s top seed. Lastly, in the wins over Houston and Pittsburgh, Mahomes was hit just six times after an NFL-high 62 times over the first 14 games.
The big question now is whether Kansas City will keep Thuney at left tackle or slide him back inside to rejoin the league’s best interior with center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith. If Thuney does go back to his natural position, it means D.J. Humphries, who has made one start with the Chiefs before pulling his hamstring, is going back into the lineup.
2. Buffalo Bills: Will the Chiefs be the stumbling block … again?
For the Bills, there’s no question about their regular-season chops. Buffalo has won the AFC East in each of the past five seasons. The playoffs, however, have been another story. And in most cases, the Chiefs have been the issue.
Over the past four years, the Bills have been a contender and in each campaign, won their wild-card matchup. But three of those seasons have concluded with losses to the Chiefs, including a pair at Arrowhead Stadium. In 2020, it was a 38–24 defeat in the AFC title game. The following year, Buffalo sustained its most painful loss of the Allen era in the infamous 13 Seconds Debacle. Then, last season, the Bills hosted the Chiefs but lost 27–24, as Kansas City went to its fourth Super Bowl in five years.
While Buffalo was the only team to hand the Chiefs a meaningful loss this year, history says that doesn’t matter. The Bills have now beaten Kansas City in the regular season every year since 2021, and it hasn’t translated into playoff success. The main reasons are coaching malpractice and the lack of a pass rush, as Mahomes has only been sacked three times and hit nine times in those postseason matchups. If that doesn’t change, the result likely won’t, either.
With Kansas City having the conference’s top seed, it’s probable that for the Bills to reach their first Super Bowl since 1993, their journey will include having to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
3. Baltimore Ravens: Can Lamar Jackson finally get to the Super Bowl?
There’s nothing left for Jackson and the Ravens to prove in the regular season. He’s a multiple MVP winner who might get another in his trophy case in a few weeks. Baltimore has won ample division titles and had the No. 1 seed twice in the Jackson era.
The problem has never been winning in the regular season. Rather, it’s been winning at the next level.
In Jackson’s career, he’s a hideous 2–4 with three of those defeats coming at M&T Bank Stadium, including a stunning 28–12 loss in 2019 to the Tennessee Titans after Baltimore went 14–2 and Jackson earned his first MVP award. Last season, Baltimore won 13 games but fell in the AFC championship game to the Chiefs, as the Ravens committed five personal fouls and scored only 10 points.
Now, Jackson faces another moment. Baltimore has the third seed and is favored to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the opening round. Should the Ravens advance, their most likely path to Super Bowl LIX will be going through the Bills and Chiefs on the road. If Jackson can lead Baltimore through that gauntlet and win on Super Sunday, all doubts and criticisms will be answered, putting him on a similar historical level as other all-time greats.
But to do it, Jackson has to improve his postseason play. In six games, he has completed just 57.4% of his attempts with 220.6 passing yards per game, along with six touchdown passes and six interceptions. Consistently, Jackson has played his worst games at the most crucial times.
4. Houston Texans: Will the offensive line be able to keep C.J. Stroud upright?
The Texans entered 2024 with Super Bowl expectations, but the season hasn’t gone according to plan. While there are myriad reasons, the biggest is the lack of pass blocking, which has been plagued by injuries and poor play throughout.
Not including its meaningless Week 18 game, Houston has allowed 53 sacks, the most of any playoff team in either conference. C.J. Stroud has also faced pressure on 27.4% of dropbacks, by far the highest figure for any remaining quarterback. It’s been a crippling problem for both Stroud and the Texans, who are also without two of their three top wideouts in Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
All of this has led to Stroud having a disappointing campaign, throwing for 3,677 yards with 19 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Those figures are worse than his rookie year, when Stroud led Houston to a surprise AFC South title and a playoff win over the Cleveland Browns.
In the wild-card round, the Texans get the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have one of the league’s most dangerous pass-rush groups led by T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cam Hayward and Nate Herbig. If Houston can block to a reasonable degree, it has an excellent chance to win its second playoff game in as many years. Conversely, if the Texans continue to give up pressure and sacks at their season-long clip, Stroud will have an excellent view of the NRG Stadium roof for three hours.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Does the offense have enough firepower to win in January?
The Chargers are facing the same question as the Denver Broncos, but the circumstances are different. Unlike Denver, Los Angeles has a star quarterback in Justin Herbert, even if the numbers look more like that of a game manager.
Of course, much of that reason is the lack of talent around Herbert. Over the past offseason, the Chargers decided to move on from a slew of veteran weapons, including running back Austin Ekeler, receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and tight end Gerald Everett. In their place, Los Angeles went young with rookie second-round pick Ladd McConkey, second-year man Quentin Johnston and wideout Josh Palmer, along with an elder statesman in tight end Will Dissly.
As a result, the Chargers are a more limited offensive team, even if they’re a better one thanks to coach Jim Harbaugh and a tougher defense. But for Herbert, the unit is essentially McConkey and a pinch of Johnston who has somewhat blossomed with 711 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
In the postseason, Los Angeles will desperately be relying on McConkey to beat single and double coverages, both from the slot and the perimeter. If he’s limited, the Chargers will either have to run the ball relentlessly with J.K. Dobbins or find some of the aforementioned secondary weapons in the passing game.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: Who can make a play in the passing game beyond George Pickens?
The Steelers finished the season on a down note, losing their chance to take down the AFC North with a three-game losing streak to the Philadelphia Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. In all three games, Pittsburgh failed to score more than 17 points, as the offense struggled whether star receiver George Pickens was in or out of the lineup.
With Pickens now healthy after straining his hamstring, the Steelers have their best weapon, but is it enough to win a playoff game or two? The third-year wideout is one of the better deep-ball threats in the league, which pairs well with Wilson and his moon-ball tendencies. Yet, while Pickens totaled 900 yards and three touchdowns this season, he might not be able to single-handedly carry Pittsburgh against teams looking to double-team him on every meaningful passing down.
If Pickens isn’t open to make a play, the Steelers will have to turn to Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson and Mike Williams, along with tight end Pat Freiermuth, none of which have posted a 100-yard game this season.
While Pittsburgh is clearly powered by its defense and a top-notch coach in Mike Tomlin, the offense must produce for the Steelers to make a real postseason charge. And if Pickens is the only significant option in a game against a quality opponent, that’s going to be a tall task.
7. Denver Broncos: Can they score enough points against a quality team?
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league under former head coach and current coordinator Vance Joseph. Joseph has led a unit that either tops the charts or comes close in sacks, quarterback hits, points per game, yards per play, red zone percentage and more.
But can the offense do its job? In games against teams no longer playing, the Broncos have been able to light up the scoreboard. However, against quality teams, specifically against AFC playoff teams, the offense has struggled. In those games (save for playing Kansas City’s backups in Week 18), Denver managed just six points against the Steelers, 14 against the Chiefs, 10 against the Ravens and 16 garbage-time points in their first matchup with the Chargers. In Week 16, however, the Broncos had their best offensive showing in such a situation, ironically coming in a 34–27 loss to the Chargers at SoFi Stadium.
In all the aforementioned games, Sean Payton’s club topped 320 yards just once, doing so in the latter loss to Los Angeles with 355 and never once eclipsed 250 passing yards. In the postseason, Denver will need the offense to do more, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Nix has outplayed most expectations, but can he raise his game against the league’s best when the Broncos’ defense may not be able to hold opponents to under 20 points?
This article was originally published on www.si.com as One Big Question for Each of the Seven AFC Playoff Teams.
