When Oleksandr Zinchenko left Manchester City for Arsenal last summer, few predicted he would have such a big say in the title race.
The left-back has transformed the way Arsenal play, dictating the tempo of games and allowing Mikel Arteta’s side to control matches.
Rarely has a full-back been so influential and, as the Ukrainian prepares to face his former club in Wednesday’s huge top-of-the-table clash, City must surely regret letting him leave.
Arsenal paid £32million for Zinchenko, which is about half what Chelsea paid Brighton for Marc Cucurella, and looks a brilliant piece of business for the Gunners. At City, meanwhile, Pep Guardiola has selection issues at left-back and the decision to sell Zinchenko could come back to haunt him.
Joao Cancelo was allowed to join Bayern Munich on loan last month following a bust-up with Guardiola and his exit has left City short in that area of the pitch.
Even before his departure, Cancelo was out of form and Guardiola has been forced to try multiple methods to find a solution at left-back as his side struggle for consistency.
Aymeric Laporte, Kyle Walker, Nathan Ake and Rico Lewis have all played there since Zinchenko moved. Sergio Gomez was signed to replace him but has struggled and is yet to make a Premier League start.
Against Aston Villa on Sunday, when City won 3-1 to move to within three points of Arsenal, Guardiola ditched a left-back entirely. Instead, he switched to a 3-4-3 formation and, when the defence did need support, it was midfield playmaker Bernardo Silva who dropped back to cover.
“Bernardo has the ability to play in 10 positions because he’s so smart,” Guardiola explained. “He’s not tall but he’s smart. I like Rico in these positions, like [Fabian] Delph or Zinchenko in the past. Today, I wanted Bernardo to do it.”
The idea of playing Bernardo alongside Rodri in a midfield two was typically innovative from Guardiola. Bernardo was given licence to roam, operating in a role referred to by the Spanish as a ‘todocampista’, which in English translates as ‘all midfielder’.
That is essentially what Zinchenko does for Arsenal, his heat maps after games often resembling a Jackson Pollock painting. Zinchenko may start at left-back, but he never stays there.
Guardiola likes his left-back to operate in a similar way, which is why Zinchenko was the perfect understudy to Cancelo, who excelled in that role last season. By tucking in, City’s right-back — usually Kyle Walker — then has the licence to get forward and overlap.
The absence of Cancelo and Zinchenko has forced Guardiola to think outside the box, but tomorrow night he is likely to revert to a back-four and start Ake at left-back.
The Dutchman is traditionally a centre-back but has impressed at left-back this season and he excelled when City beat Arsenal 1-0 in the FA Cup last month, keeping Bukayo Saka quiet.
It is no coincidence that Arsenal’s dip in form has coincided with Zinchenko’s influence fading.
Guardiola could spring a surprise and stick with the 3-4-3 that beat Villa, but giving Arsenal’s wide players such space would be a huge gamble.
The stakes are incredibly high at Emirates Stadium tomorrow. City, who expect Erling Haaland to be fit to play after his injury scare, know a win will take them top for the first time since August. Arsenal, in contrast, could pull six points clear with a game in hand.
The Gunners are on a run of three games without a win in all competitions. Zinchenko has struggled in those matches and it is no coincidence that Arsenal’s dip in form has coincided with his influence fading.
When City sold Gabriel Jesus and Zinchenko to Arsenal, they felt Jesus could return to haunt them. But, with Jesus out injured, it is Zinchenko who could prove to be the difference in the run-in.