December WTI crude oil (CLZ24) today is down -4.01 (-5.59%), and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ24) is down -0.1015 (-4.98%).
Crude oil prices are sharply lower after Israel over the weekend launched only a limited retaliatory strike on Iran and did not strike any of Iran's oil facilities. Iran said its oil industry was operating normally in the wake of Israel's retaliatory strike.
Israel's retaliatory strike hit key military and air defense targets in Iran, avoiding the oil, civilian, and nuclear targets that would have likely sparked a new strike by Iran on Israel. There is the possibility of new tit-for-tat strikes by Iran and Israel, but the markets are hoping that the current round of direct Iran-Israel attacks is over for the time being.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -18% w/w to 55.49 million bbl in the week ended October 25.
Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's total apparent oil demand in Sep fell -6.98% y/y to 14.176 million bpd, and total Chinese oil demand this year (Jan-Sep) is down -3.8% y/y to 13.99 million bpd.
A bearish factor for crude oil is ramped-up crude output in Libya after the resolution of a political standoff that had curbed the country's crude production and exports. On October 13, Libya's National Oil Corp said that Libya's crude production rose to 1.3 million bpd, the most in two months, which boosted global crude supplies.
Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand. However, the Financial Times reported on September 26 that Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial oil price target of $100 a barrel to regain its market share and is committed to returning its crude production as planned on December 1. OPEC crude production in September fell -480,000 bpd to an 8-month low of 26.51 million bpd
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +150,000 bpd to 3.46 million bpd in the week to October 20. Conversely, Russia's Energy Ministry reported last Wednesday that Russia's Sep crude production was 8.97 million bpd, down -13,000 bpd from Aug and just below the 8.98 million bpd output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of October 18 were -3.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.0% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending October 18 was unchanged w/w at a record 13.5 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending October 25 fell by -2 rigs to 480 rigs, just above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
