Oil prices hovered near a three-month low as markets continued to price in the impact of a proposed U.S.-Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring additional crude supplies back into the market.
The interim agreement, expected to be signed on Friday, would grant Tehran significant economic incentives, including the immediate ability to resume oil sales.
Crude oil price on June 17
Brent crude traded below $80 a barrel after tumbling 15% over the past four sessions, marking its longest losing streak of the year. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was trading close to $77 a barrel.
Crude prices have eased in recent weeks as expectations of a resolution to the conflict between Washington and Tehran have cooled concerns over supply shortages. Energy producers, shipping firms and traders are now evaluating the durability of the agreement and the timeline for the full resumption of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although some technical provisions are still being finalized, the 14-point draft memorandum seen by Bloomberg provides the clearest outline yet of the proposed arrangement.
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Among its provisions is a requirement for Tehran to ensure safe passage for merchant vessels, while the United States would lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway links the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and, under normal conditions, handles roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies.
The draft also includes a commitment from Washington to issue waivers covering exports of Iranian crude, petrochemicals and related products, along with associated services such as banking, insurance and transportation, the report said.
However, geopolitical risks have not disappeared. Israel has distanced itself from both the April ceasefire and the latest U.S.-Iran agreement, raising questions about the long-term stability of the truce.
On Tuesday, Israeli drone strikes hit three vehicles in southern Lebanon, killing at least four people and injuring several others, according to Lebanon's National News Agency. U.S. President Donald Trump also publicly criticised Israel's military actions in a rare rebuke.
Where are prices headed?
Analysts note that global oil inventories were depleted during the extended disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and will take time to rebuild. Stockpiles could continue falling before fresh Gulf supplies begin reaching international markets.
The focus now is on how quickly Middle Eastern producers can restore output and exports after wartime disruptions. Market participants are also tracking the pace at which shipping activity returns to the region.
Even if the ceasefire remains in place, analysts warn that shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months to return to normal levels.
Last month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser cautioned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could delay a return to stability in global oil markets until 2027. According to Nasser, prolonged interruptions could affect nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply each week. Saudi Aramco remains the world's largest oil producer.
All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve meeting as energy prices are among the factors that will be monitored by the policymakers. Markets widely expect the central bank to leave borrowing costs unchanged.
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