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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Julia Kollewe

Oil jumps to $105, gas prices surge and global stocks tumble after Ukraine invasion – as it happened

Ukrainians protest against Russian invasion on Ukraine outside Downing Street in London, 24 February.
Ukrainians protest against Russian invasion on Ukraine outside Downing Street in London, 24 February. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Closing summary

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the early hours of this morning was met with disbelief and shock around the world, and caused turmoil in financial markets.

If wholesale gas prices stay at the current high level, UK annual household bills could rise to £3,000 in October, said Investec analyst Martin Young. They will go up by 54% to just under £2,000 next month under the regulator’s price cap.

Global stock markets have tumbled, with the FTSE 100 index in London falling 3.8% to 7,207 while the Dax in Frankfurt lost nearly 4%, France’s CAC dropped 3.8% and the Italian borsa dropped 4.1%. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq pared earlier losses and is now flat while the S&P 500 is down 0.9% and the Dow Jones has fallen 2%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, went above $105 a barrel for the first time since August 2014. It is now at $103.86 a barrel, up more than 7%m while US light crude is trading 5.3% higher at $97.32 a barrel.

British gas for next-day delivery has jumped 45% to 310p per therm.

European wheat futures jumped 20% to a record price of €344 a tonne, the biggest rise in nine years. Ukraine is the fifth-largest exporter of wheat in the world and considered the bread basket of Europe. This threatens to push already-high food prices even higher.

Gold and other precious metal prices including palladium and platinum, have risen. Spot gold gained more than 3% at one stage to $1,969 an ounce, and is now trading at $1,923 an ounce. Aluminium rose over 5% to hit a record high of $3,466 a tonne in London.

Palladium, mostly used in catalytic converters for cars, was trading more than 5% higher this afternoon after touching $2,695.57 an ounce in the morning, up 7% to the highest level since August. Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, or Nornickel, is the world’s largest supplier of palladium and a major supplier of platinum.

Russia’s rouble hit a record low of 89.60 to the dollar and later traded 7.2% lower at 86.9. It had recovered more after the Bank of Russia said it would intervene to shore up the currency, before falling back again.

Russian stocks plummeted as much as 50% when trading resumed on the Moscow stock exchange. The dollar-denominated RTS index tanked 49.93% in early trading, and later traded 39% lower. The rouble-denominated Moex index fell 45% to 1,690.13, and was later down 33%.

London-listed Russian companies suffered heavy share price falls, with Sberbank plummeting 72% and Gazprom losing 30%. The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were the Russian mining companies Polymetal, down nearly 38%, and Evraz, down 30.3%.

As Russian government debt sold off, yields on benchmark 10-year OFZ rouble bonds (which move inversely to prices), rose to 10.93%, the highest since early 2016.

Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Bye! - JK

Updated

The G-7 foreign ministers have published a communiqué on Ukraine-Russia, which ends with these comments:

We are also closely monitoring global oil and gas market conditions, including in the context of Russia’s further military aggression against Ukraine. We support consistent and constructive engagement and coordination among major energy producers and consumers toward our collective interest in the stability of global energy supplies, and stand ready to act as needed to address potential disruptions.

Updated

Economists are digesting the impact of higher energy and food prices -- with gas, oil, wheat and various metal prices jumping on world markets today –– on the global economy.

Tatiana Orlova, an economist at Oxford Economics, said:

We will incorporate higher European gas, oil and food prices over the medium term in our baseline, as well as more financial market disruption and tougher EU and US sanctions on Russia. The impact of these changes on our forecast for the global economy is significant, cutting 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in 2022 and 0.1ppts in 2023.

Updated

We have done our own explainer of how Russia’s assault on Ukraine will affect UK gas supplies.

With Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine under way, the Kremlin’s grip on the gas taps and pipelines that supply heat and electricity to millions of homes and businesses in Europe is all too apparent, write Jillian Ambrose, our energy correspondent, and Rob Davies.

Gas is already in tight supply globally and has reached record market price highs in recent months.

In the UK, this has triggered a full-blown energy crisis, including the collapse of multiple electricity suppliers and a rise in household gas and electricity bills that has contributed to a growing cost-of-living squeeze.

As Russia began its assault on Ukraine, prices surged again.

Updated

Here are the key points of a paper by the Amundi Institute, set up by Europe’s biggest asset manager Amundi, which has more than €1.4tn under management.

  • Global markets were not pricing in a war scenario and are now adjusting given the magnitude of this military move. It will take time for the situation to settle down. In the meantime, uncertainty and volatility will persist, with the possibility of seeing some excesses to the downside. This is not a time to try to buy the dip, as the market does not yet fully understand the impact of this geopolitical shock.
  • The escalation in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine adds uncertainty to the global outlook at a time when central banks are acting to fight inflationary pressures. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily on confidence and through commodity prices in an already-hot inflationary environment. The risk of stagflation globally is now higher (inflation factor gets reinforced while the growth factor weakens), while China is relatively insulated from this, further reinforcing the role of Chinese assets as diversifier.
  • Overall, we believe it is time to keep hedges in place and stay cautious, but not overreact to excesses that we will likely see in the coming days. Some duration, gold and safehaven currencies can provide a cushion to risk assets. Equities, which have ample liquidity, will be the first target of risk reduction for markets and credit will likely follow. Overall, keeping cash buffers and a high focus on liquidity will be key.
  • As we don’t expect a fast resolution of the situation, we see a rising probability of further repricing across global risk premia. Central banks actions will be even more key. Their agendas could change in case of increasing effects on the growth outlook.

Meanwhile, Europe could see out the winter on gas reserves if Russian imports stop, according to a German analysis.

Here’s our full take on the rouble.

Updated

UK household bills will rise by 54% to just under £2,000 in April under the price cap set by the regulator Ofgem, but could rise by a further £1,000 in October if wholesale gas prices stay at the current high levels, an analyst at Investec warns.

British gas for immediate delivery has jumped 45% to 305p per therm today.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq has fallen 3.5% at the opening bell, dropping 450 points to 12,588. The S&P 500 dropped 1.65% to 4,15 while the Dow Jones industrial average slid 301 points, or 0.9%, to 32,830.

Over here, the FTSE 100 is trading 236 points lower at 7,259, a 3.2% decline. The German market has lost more than 5%, the French bourse is 4.3% lower and the Italian market has dropped 4.8%, as investors reacted to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Moderna makes $13.3bn profit from Covid vaccine

The Boston-based biotech firm Moderna has just unveiled a profit before tax of $13.3bn for last year –– its first annual profit –- on the back of its Covid-19 vaccine, after a £747m loss in 2020. Revenues ballooned to $18bn, from $803m in 2020.

The vast majority of revenues ($17.7bn) came from the jab, called Spikevax and one of the most expensive Covid shots in the world. This year the company expects to make a further $19bn sales from Spikevax, with additional options of $3bn and “numerous discussions” ongoing with governments for this autumn and 2023. It delivered 807m doses of the vaccine last year to 70 countries.

The early studies of the Covid jab were led by the National Institutes of Health, by Barney Graham, deputy director of the Vaccine Research Center at NIH, one of the unsung heroes of the pandemic. He helped engineer a vaccine that potentially saved millions of lives around the world.

Updated

British Gas has reassured customers that UK energy supplies are safe after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but would not comment on any bill increases.

British Gas has said energy supplies to its eight million customers are guaranteed, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but declined to comment on what soaring prices might mean for household bills, reports my colleague Mark Sweney.

Russia, which launched a full invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, is responsible for a third of Europe’s natural gas and about 10% of global oil production.

About a third of Russian gas supplies to Europe usually travels through pipelines crossing Ukraine, and there are fears retaliation against economic sanctions on Russia could disrupt supplies.

“What we have made quite clear is that when we make a commitment to gas and electricity for customers we deliver on that,” said Chris O’Shea, chief executive of Centrica, the parent company of the UK’s biggest energy supplier. “We can deliver everything to consumers that we said we would.”

A gas hob with a bill from British Gas.
A gas hob with a bill from British Gas. Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Amid a flight to safe-have investments, the pound has suffered a 1.1% decline against the dollar. It has dropped to $1.3378 as investors dumped riskier currencies and bought yen and the US dollar instead.

The UK interest rate outlook is another factor. Markets have scaled back expectations for a half-point rate hike next month after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said yesterday that markets should not get carried away about the likely scale of interest rate increases, while policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said she saw the case for further modest tightening.

Today, the Bank’s chief economist Huw Pill echoed this message, saying the the central bank should seek to bring fast-rising inflation down in a “measured way” and one “that doesn’t disturb the rest of the economy.”

Here is our market wrap:

Why Russia drives European gas prices – explainer

UK and European gas prices have jumped 40% today. Reuters has done a handy explainer of why developments in Russia drive European gas prices.

Europe gets about 40% of its natural gas from Russia. Most of it comes through pipelines including Yamal, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream 1, which runs directly to Germany, and pipelines that run through Ukraine.

Not all countries get gas directly from Russia, but if countries like Germany, the biggest guzzler of Russian gas, receive less, they have to replace it from elsewhere, for example Norway, which has a knock-on effect on available gas for other countries.

This explains why news on Russian supplies affects British gas prices in a similar way to European ones, even though Britain gets less than 5% of its gas from Russia –– but Norway is its largest supplier.

The European Commission’s president Ursula von der Leyen has said said the EU would be able to cope with some disruption of gas imports from Russia.

The Russian energy giant Gazprom said today that gas exports via Ukraine are normal.
Analysts expect Russia will continue to supply gas to Europe and pointed to uninterrupted supplies to Europe during the Crimea crisis in 2014/15.

A gas pipeline stands over the road leading to a destroyed coal mine in the middle of a minefield near Mar’inka, eastern Ukraine.
A gas pipeline stands over the road leading to a destroyed coal mine in the middle of a minefield near Mar’inka, eastern Ukraine. Photograph: Mstyslav Chernov/AP

Market round-up

Time for a round-up.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil on the ground, and in financial markets. It triggered a sell-off in global stock markets. Prices for oil and natural gas and other commodities such as wheat, along with gold, palladium and other precious metals have surged, as investors fear supply disruptions.

They have piled into gold, European and US government bonds, which are seen as safer investments in times of turmoil. Russian assets have sold off, from the rouble to stocks and bonds.

UK and European stock indices have tumbled between 3% (FTSE 100 index) and 5% (the German stock market).

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, went above $105 a barrel for the first time since August 2014. It is now at $104.50 a barrel, up nearly 8%.

British gas for next-day delivery has jumped 40% to 280p per therm.

European wheat futures have jumped 20% to a record price of €344 a tonne, the biggest rise in nine years. Ukraine is the fifth-largest exporter of wheat in the world and considered the bread basket of Europe. This doesn’t bode well for consumers –- food and energy prices are already high.

Gold and other precious metal prices including palladium, platinum and nickel, have jumped. Spot gold has gained more than 3% today to $1,969 an ounce. Aluminium hit a record high of $3,443 a tonne in London.

Russia’s rouble hit a record low of 89.60 to the dollar but later recovered somewhat to 83.4, still down 2.7% on the day, after the Bank of Russia said it would intervene to shore up the currency. The rouble is trading at 93.7 to the euro, down 2.2%.

Russian stocks plummeted as much as 50% when trading resumed on the Moscow stock exchange. The dollar-denominated RTS index tanked 49.93% in early trading, and later traded 34% lower. The rouble-denominated Moex index fell 45% to 1,690.13, and was later down 31%.

London-listed Russian companies suffered heavy share price falls, with Sberbank plummeting 61% and Gazprom losing 28%.

As Russian government debt sold off, yields on benchmark 10-year OFZ rouble bonds (which move inversely to prices), rose to 10.93%, the highest since early 2016.

Updated

As Russian government debt sold off, the yield on the Russian benchmark 10-year OFZ rouble bond (which moves inversely to prices) rose as high as 10.93%, the highest since early 2016.

The rouble is off its record lows, trading at 84 to the dollar (but still down 3.6% on the day), after crashing to an all-time low of 89.60. The Russian central bank said earlier this morning that it would intervene in the currency markets to shore up the embattled currency.

Updated

Russian stocks crash

Russian stock markets have fallen to the lowest levels since 2016. As trading resumed on the Moscow exchange, the dollar-denominated RTS index plunged 31%, while the rouble-denominated Moex index lost 27%.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, explained that the FTSE 100 index in London is down less than other European bourses partly because the UK market has a large weighting towards the energy sector, and oil giants BP and Shell stand to benefit from the surge in oil prices through $100 a barrel.

While both these stocks were down in absolute terms, relative to the market they fell by a smaller amount. Interestingly, Shell only dipped 0.4% whereas BP was down by a greater amount at 2.6% which can be explained by its near-20% stake in Russian oil producer Rosneft whose own shares dived 40% on Thursday.

The surge in the oil price is terrible news for businesses and consumers, and fundamentally this clarifies one of the key impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war – it will serve to further stoke inflation.

Not only will energy bills keep going up, but food prices look set to jump even higher. Ukraine and Russia are both big food suppliers and any disruption to supplies will force buyers to seek alternative sources, which could jack up prices.

Investor sentiment was already fragile because of rising inflation and the upwards direction of travel for interest rates, but confirmation of war and the associated alarming news headlines around the world are likely to see equity markets go through a difficult period for longer than people might have previously expected.

The sell-off on European stock markets is gathering pace.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 down 189 points, or 2.5%, at 7,308
  • Germany’s Dax down 3.4% at 14,127
  • France’s CAC down 3.3% at 6,557
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB down 3.7% at 25,000

You can follow the latest developments in the Ukraine crisis on our live blog here:

Here is our full story on the invasion:

And here is an explainer: Russia has invaded Ukraine – what we know so far

European banking shares fall sharply

An index of European banking stocks fell more than 4% this morning, steeper than a 3% fall in the wider Euro Stoxx index.

Banks with big operations in Russia took a hammering, including Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, down almost 12%, while Italy’s UniCredit fell 6.5% and France’s Société Générale lost 5.3%.

European banks are most exposed to Russia, especially those in France, Italy and Spain, which far outstrip US bank exposure, Reuters said, citing data from the Bank for International Settlements.

Deutsche Bank and the Munich-based insurer Allianz, two of Europe’s most important financial firms and both with operations in Russia, said they were ready to comply with sanctions.

Allianz, Europe’s biggest insurer, said the share of Russian government bonds in its portfolio was “currently very low” and it had recently implemented a freeze on those securities. Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, has reduced its presence in Russia in recent years, along with other banks.

The Lloyds boss Charlie Nunn told reporters on a results call this morning that the UK bank was on “heightened alert” for cyber attacks from Russia, which he said were discussed in a meeting between the government and banking bosses about Russia yesterday.

A Raiffeisen Bank logo.
A Raiffeisen Bank logo. Photograph: Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

Our economics editor Larry Elliott has looked at why a swift economic victory against Russia looks unlikely (he wrote this yesterday, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).

Be ready for a long haul. That was the subtext of Boris Johnson’s message to MPs as he committed to toughening up sanctions against Russia.

The warning to prepare for a “protracted struggle” was both timely and appropriate. There will be no quick knockout blow because Vladimir Putin has had time to prepare and is well dug-in.

On the face of it, it should be an unequal fight. Russia is the world’s biggest landmass but has annual output smaller than Italy’s. Income a head is about a quarter of that in the UK.

Russia’s economy has gone through distinct phases since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s: an initial shock treatment that resulted in a savage recession and culminated in a financial crisis in 1998; a strong recovery in the first decade of the 21st century on the back of booming oil and gas exports; and a recent period of stagnation as the failure to diversify the economy took its toll.

London-listed Russian companies plummet

Some 31 Russian companies are traded on the London stock exchange. State-owned banks Sberbank and VTB, along with state-backed oil and gas producers Gazprom and Rosneft have secondary listings here (and their primary listing in Moscow).

The shares have tanked this morninng: Sberbank has lost 75% and VTB fell almost 22%. Gazprom is down 36%, Rosneft has dropped 23% and Lukoil has tumbled nearly 44%.

The Anglo-Russian minder Polymetal is the top faller on the FTSE 100 now, down 42%, with the Russian mining group Evraz in second place, down nearly 30%.

Updated

Gas and oil prices surge

Gas and oil prices are surging. The British day ahead gas contract has jumped 39% to 278p per therm.

Brent crude is 6.6% higher at $103.21 a barrel, the highest since August 2014, while US light crude has jumped 6.2%% to $97.75 a barrel.

Oil prices have surged more than $20 a barrel since the start of 2022 as the Ukraine crisis rumbled on, with fears that the US and Europe would impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, thereby disrupting supplies.

Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and sells most of its crude to European refineries. It is also the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, providing about 35% of its supply.

Warren Patterson, head of ING’s commodity research, told Reuters:

Russia’s announcement of a special military operation into Ukraine has pushed Brent [above] the $100 per barrel mark.

This growing uncertainty during a time when the oil market is already tight does leave it vulnerable, and so prices are likely to remain volatile and elevated.

Updated

There are only three risers on the FTSE 100 in London at the moment, as the blue-chip index slid 197 points, or 2.63%, to 7,300. The top faller is, once again, the Russian miner Evraz, down 30%, which has suffered heavy losses this week.

Lloyds Banking Group is also among the biggest fallers, down nearly 8%, despite a five-fold increase in profits. Banking shares are falling across Europe as the Ukraine conflict took a turn for the worse, with full-scale invasion by Russia.

Lloyds said it was on “heightened alert” for cyberattacks from Russia. German insurer Allianz said it had frozen its Russian government bond exposure, while Deutsche Bank said it had contingency plans in place.

European gas prices jump 40%

European gas prices have jumped more than 40% after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Benchmark Dutch gas futures gained as much as 41% to €125 per megawatt hour, the highest level since just before Christmas, according to Bloomberg. They later traded 19% higher at €106.11.

German power for March delivery soared as much as 31%, reaching €260 per megawatt hour.

For now, there does not appear to be any disruption of oil and gas flows through Ukraine.

Updated

Aluminium prices hit record high

Aluminium prices in London have hit a record high after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, as investors worry about supplies from Russia, a major metals producer, and an impact on production from higher energy prices. Russia produces 6% of the world’s aluminium, and 7% of its mined nickel.

Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange jumped to an all-time high of $3,443 a tonne, and later traded 4.2% higher at $3,428.5. Nickel climbed 3.4% to $25,220 a tonne, after hitting its highest level since May 2011 t $25,240.

Soni Kumari, an analyst at Melbourne-based ANZ bank, told Reuters:

Aluminium and nickel are energy intensive metals and higher energy prices would further push the cost curve. This raises risk of more European smelters suspending their production or postponing their restart plans.

Germany pulled the plug on a major gas project, the $11bn Nord Stream 2 pipeline owned by the Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom on Tuesday, further boosting natural gas prices.

European shares tumble at the open

European shares have tumbled at the opening bell. Germany’s Dax fell 4.4%, while the French market dropped nearly 4%, Spain’s Ibex slid 4.3% and the Italian exchange lost 2%. The FTSE 100 in London has fallen nearly 200 points, or 2.6%.

Updated

Bank of Russia to intervene to prop up rouble for first time since 2014

The Russian central bank said it would intervene in currency markets to prop up the rouble, after it crashed to an all-time low of 89.60 against the dollar. Against the euro, it is trading at $98, down nearly 7%.

Russian forces have fired missiles at several cities in Ukraine and landed troops on its coast today, after denying for weeks that they had plans for an invasion.

Russia’s currency and bonds have tanked, prompting the Bank of Russia to announce its first foreign exchange intervention to shore up financial stability since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

The bank said:

To stabilise the situation on the financial market, the Bank of Russia decided to start interventions on the currency market.

The bank has also decided to expand the list of securities it accepts as collateral in exchange for liquidity it provides, and will hold operations to offer extra liquidity to the Russian banking sector.

Markets are also bracing for tougher western sanctions against Russia, following measures criticised as soft on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A view of the offices of the Central Bank of Russia in Neglinnaya Street in central Moscow.
A view of the offices of the Central Bank of Russia in Neglinnaya Street in central Moscow. Photograph: Alexander Shcherbak/TASS

Updated

As investors pile into safe-haven assets, the yields on eurozone government bonds have fallen sharply (the return to an investor from the bond’s coupon, interest, payments).

Investors are buying German 10-year bonds, the benchmark in Europe, pushing the yield down to 1.139%, the lowest in three weeks. Most other 10-year bond yields in Europe are also down.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

It’s probably not hyperbole to say that Europe is now at its most dangerous juncture since World War 2.

Gold and palladium prices surge

Gold, a traditional safe haven investment seen as a good hedge against rising inflation, jumped as much as 2% to their highest levels in a year, touching $1,948.77 an ounce. They later traded at 1.8% to $1,941 an ounce, while silver prices rose 2.3% to $25.08 an ounce.

Palladium prices also surged. Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of gold and Moscow-based Norilsk Nickel is a major producer of palladium and platinum. Spot palladium rose 2.7% to $4,549.01 an ounce, and platinum gained 1.2% to $1,104.50.

The UK also also threatened “unprecedented” sanctions against Russia.

UK junior minister James Cleverly told Sky News:

We will be bringing forward .... in close concert with our international friends and allies, an unprecedented sanctions response, coordinated sanctions response, to punish this appalling decision.

Updated

Introduction: Markets in turmoil as Russia invades Ukraine

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Oil prices have broken through $100 a barrel and global stocks are plunging, after Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin ordered a “special military operation” at dawn, amid warnings from world leaders that it could spark the biggest war in Europe since 1945. Within minutes of Putin’s short televised address, at about 5am Ukrainian time, explosions were heard near major Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv.

The United States and its allies will impose “severe sanctions” on Russia, US president Joe Biden said.

Oil prices jumped more than 6% and Brent crude went through $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-2004. It touched $103.32 a barrel, the highest since August 2014, while US light crude soared to $97.51 a barrel, up $5.4.

The rouble hit a record low of 89.60 against the dollar, and the Moscow stock exchange remains temporarily suspended, but is due to reopen at 10am GMT. Russian sovereign dollar bonds are selling off, with the bond maturing in 2029 down more than 15 cents to a record low of 72.5 cents.

Asian stocks tumbled, with Japan’s Nikkei losing 1.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Singaporean exchange falling more than 3%.

European stock futures point to sharp losses when bourses over here open at 8am GMT. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down 4.7%, German Dax futures are more than 5% lower and FTSE futures have fallen 3%.

The Agenda

  • 7.45am GMT: France consumer confidence
  • 11am GMT: CBI retail sales survey
  • 1.15pm GMT: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks
  • 1.30pm GMT: US GDP for fourth quarter, second estimate (forecast: 7%)
  • 1.30pm GMT: US Initial jobless claims for week of 19 February

Updated

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