Ohioans will decide on Tuesday how difficult it should be to amend the state’s constitution in an election that will have huge consequences for reproductive rights and the future of majority rule in the state.
Currently, Ohio requires activists to get a certain number of signatures on petitions, both statewide and in 44 of 88 counties, to send an amendment to the ballot. In each of the 44 counties, the total number of signatures needs to be equivalent to 5% of the vote in that county in the last gubernatorial race. Statewide, the total has to be equivalent to 10% of the same.
Issue 1, the only question on Tuesday’s ballot, would make that process considerably harder. It would require supporters to get the signatures in all 88 counties and then obtain a 60% supermajority for an amendment to pass.
The vote comes just three months before Ohio is to rule on a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights in November. Republicans have openly said that Issue 1 is an attempt to block the abortion measure from passing.
The vote is also an effort to preserve Republican political power in Ohio. Activists in the state are crafting a constitutional amendment that would strip state lawmakers of their ability to draw electoral districts and hand it over to an independent commission instead. Last year, Republicans repeatedly ignored rebukes from the supreme court calling for the redrawing of district lines because they were too distorted in favor of Republicans. Republicans eventually ran out the clock, preserved their supermajority in the state legislature, and then used that supermajority to refer Issue 1 to the ballot.
Polling has been limited and it is difficult to predict the results of a ballot referendum. The average of three polls, all of which have slightly different wording, have shown 35% of Ohioans support the change, 45% oppose it, and 20% aren’t sure, according to FiveThirtyEight. Similar measures to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments in other states have failed in recent years, the outlet noted.
If the measure passes, opponents say, it would effectively institute minority rule in Ohio. Supporters say it should be harder for citizens to amend the state constitution. That argument is not supported by data – roughly 75% of the citizen-initiated constitutional amendments over the last century have failed. Ohio also allows the legislature to send constitutional amendments to the ballot and voters have approved 106 out of 157 since 1914, according to cleveland.com.
The push to adopt the amendment has been largely funded by Richard Uihlein, an Illinois billionaire and Republican megadonor, who has spent millions backing the effort. Those opposing the campaign have also raised considerable sums of money, though no donations as big as Uihlein’s, from out-of-state left-leaning groups.
Ohio hasn’t voted on a statewide constitutional referendum in August since 1926. And this year, Republicans in the state cancelled August elections altogether, citing their low turnout (it was just 8% last year). But in May, they reversed that decision to put Issue 1 on the ballot in August.
That reversal appeared to be a calculation that turnout would be low in August, giving the measure a better chance of passing. But it may have backfired. Nearly 600,000 people voted early through 4 August, turnout that one election official told the Associated Press was akin to a gubernatorial election. There have been some reports of long lines in urban areas (Ohio only allows each county to have one early voting site) and some counties have made last minute changes to their polling locations.
Polls are open on Tuesday from 6.30am until 7.30pm.
