Two weeks down and two victories for the Ohio State football team. Things haven’t been a smooth and well-oiled operation so far in 2022, but it could be worse, just look around the country at teams like Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M that have already lost a game or two.
And while the Buckeyes have two double-digit wins under their belt, each week brings new observations and different data elements that get spit into the big machine that is the ESPN FPI matchup predictor.
We check in on what the percentages say about Ohio State’s chances of winning each remaining game on the schedule after each week, and things do change quite a bit. After last week, is OSU still favored in all of its games, or has someone like Michigan closed the gap enough in these crazy formula-driven predictions to make the Buckeyes no longer the favorite?
Here’s what all the data says on ESPN for the probabilities of winning each game on the remaining schedule for Ohio State.
Saturday, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.4% (down from 98.4%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 3-0
Projected running record: 3-0
Saturday, Sept. 24. vs. Wisconsin
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 93.5% (down from 90.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5
Projected running record: 4-0
Saturday, Oct. 1, vs. Rutgers
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.2% (down from 98.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0
Projected running record: 5-0
Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State
Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 76.3% (down from 82.3%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15
Projected running record: 6-0
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.5% (down from 96.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3
Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 78.1% (down from 82.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.6% (up from 95.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0% (up from 97.7%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 86.5% (down from 89.7%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.5% (down from 80.3%)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
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