The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has downgraded its 2022 Thai economic growth forecast to 3.4% from the 3.5% projection it made in July.
The agency predicts higher economic growth of 3.8% next year, mainly driven by an increase in foreign tourist arrivals.
The office projects growth this year in a range of 2.9-3.9%, with an average of 3.4%, FPO director-general Pornchai Thiraveja said yesterday. The downgrade is attributed to slowing private investment, especially in the construction sector, which has seen rising costs.
The office also downgraded its growth forecast for private investment this year to 5.1% from 5.7%.
The main driver of this year's economic expansion has been the revival of the tourism sector. The FPO expects 10.2 million foreign tourists to visit Thailand this year, up from a previous forecast of 8 million.
Mr Pornchai said growth has also been supported by a recovery in private consumption, driven by the government's stimulus packages and higher income for farmers. Farm income during the first nine months of 2022 rose 7.4% year-on-year.
The country's exports are expected to grow by 8.1% this year, thanks to higher demand for Thai food products.
Next year the economy is expected to expand in a range of 2.8-4.8%, again driven by the tourism sector, said the FPO.
The office projects 21.5 million foreign tourists next year generating revenue of 1.04 trillion baht, more than double this year's forecast of 490 billion baht.
Exports are expected to slow next year, in line with the global economy. The FPO predicts exports will expand by 2.5% in 2023, with global economic growth of 3%.
Private investment in Thailand is expected to expand by 3.7% next year.
The FPO projects headline inflation of 6.2% this year, before it falls to 2.9% in 2023, in line with the anticipated decline in energy prices.
The average Dubai crude oil price is expected to be US$99 per barrel this year, before falling to $92 in 2023.
Thailand is expected to post a current account surplus of $5.6 billion in 2023, compared with an expected deficit of $13.9 billion this year.
