Notwithstanding the sound and fury of the Conservative party descending into more mayhem, pledging to cut immigration will not be its saviour. If the Tories think it’s an ejector seat from their political nosedive, that’s a forlorn hope. The cost of living tops voters’ concerns, so distracting them with immigration noise hardly looks like a winner: even on immigration, as on every issue but defence, Labour leads in the polls.
Having already morphed into Ukip, the Conservatives now lean to Reform. Brexit won the election for them last time; couldn’t an immigration scare win now? After all, Brexit and immigration became political conjoined twins. But they forget who has overseen net migration figures reaching 672,000 in the UK in the year to June 2023. Though 60% of those polled by YouGov say immigration is too high, its salience in terms of what matters most to voters has fallen steeply since Brexit.
