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Fortune
Fortune
Shawn Tully

October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist

(Credit: Angela Weiss—AFP via Getty Images)

Donald Trump is suffering an historic descent in the campaign's final days, an ongoing freefall that's turning what looked like a walkaway for the former president into what's most likely a Kamala Harris victory. That's the view from Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, whose proprietary model's proven right-on in past elections.

Trump's darkening prospects mark a dramatic reversal from the election's dynamic less than 13 days ago. During the first three weeks of October, Donald Trump staged a remarkable comeback, rebounding from a huge deficit to a commanding lead. With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, Trump appeared en route to a smashing victory.

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