As we approach the release of the October jobs report on November 1, experts are anticipating potential disruptions that could heavily impact the data. Three significant factors are expected to distort the October employment figures: the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, the ongoing Boeing machinists' strike, and a recent strike at US ports along the East and Gulf Coasts.
While September's employment data is projected to remain relatively stable, the October report may reflect the effects of these disruptions. Chief US economist at Oxford Economics, Ryan Sweet, highlighted that these events are likely to create distortions in the labor market data for October, making September the last clear reading for a while.
The impact of the Boeing strike, if it extends through the payroll reference period of October 12, could lead to a decrease in employment figures. When combined with the effects of Hurricane Helene, there is a possibility that October's employment numbers might show a decline.
Despite the temporary nature of these disruptions, the US has not experienced a negative jobs report since December 2020, during a resurgence of Covid cases. The upcoming employment reports for October and November will play a crucial role in influencing the Federal Reserve's policy decision for November, according to senior economist at EY-Parthenon, Lydia Boussour.
