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Springfield, Missouri-based O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) operates as one of the largest specialty retailers and suppliers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories. With a market cap of $75.9 billion, O’Reilly operates over 6,300 stores in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
The retailer has significantly outperformed the broader market over the past year. ORLY stock has soared 27.3% over the past 52 weeks and 13.6% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 17% gains over the past year and 1.3% returns in 2025.
Zooming in further, O’Reilly’s performance looks even more appealing when compared with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF’s (XRT) 1.6% gains over the past 52 weeks and a 4.7% dip in 2025.
Despite outpacing Wall Street’s topline expectations, O’Reilly’s stock dipped 1.3% in the trading session after the release of its Q4 results on Feb. 5. Driven by solid growth in same-store sales, the company’s overall topline increased by 6.9% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, exceeding the Street’s expectations of $4.04 billion. However, due to a notable surge in COGS and SG&A expenses, O’Reilly’s profit margins took a sharp hit, which led to a modest 2.8% year-over-year growth in operating income to $738.7 million.
Meanwhile, as per the company’s full-year guidance’s midpoint, O’Reilly’s topline is expected to grow nearly 5% year-over-year to $17.55 billion in FY 2025, representing a notable slowdown in sales growth when compared to the 5.7% topline growth reported in FY 2024. Furthermore, the company expects operating cash flow to drop from $3.05 billion in FY 2024 to $3 billion (as per guidance midpoint) in FY 2025.
For the current fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect O’Reilly to deliver a 6.9% year-over-year growth in earnings to $43.94 per share. However, the company has a mixed earnings surprise history. While it has surpassed the Street’s bottom-line expectations twice over the past four quarters, it has missed the estimates on two other occasions.
Among the 27 analysts covering the ORLY stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 18 “Strong Buy,” two “Moderate Buy,” and seven “Hold” ratings.
This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago when 17 analysts gave “Strong Buy” recommendations and only one analyst suggested a “Moderate Buy” rating.
On Feb. 10, BMO Capital analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin reiterated an “Outperform” rating on ORLY, while raising the price target to $1,450.
ORLY’s mean price target of $1,440.62 represents a 7% premium to current price levels, while its street-high target of $1,550 indicates a 15.1% upside potential.
