Will they, or won't they?
The Wednesday meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ's) monetary policy committee to raise rates looms as a line-ball decision.
The new year was supposed to have brought hope for Kiwi mortgage holders that the official cash rate (OCR) might start to fall from 5.5 per cent.
Post-pandemic inflation forced the the RBNZ to raise the OCR to 5.5 per cent last year from a rock bottom 0.25 per cent in late 2021.
After eight months at that level, it was widely assumed the next move would be down.
However, a hawkish prediction this month from ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner of two further rises to come, beginning this week, shocked analysts.
"We think in November the Reserve Bank sounded a little bit trigger happy," Ms Zollner told TVNZ.
"They talked about hiking and they published a forecast for the official cash rate that showed 19 points of hiking when a hike is usually 25 points.
"We think they're pretty close to the line and they just need a nudge rather than a shove, and we've had a nudge in the data."
That includes huge levels of migrant arrivals, and a record net migration of 126,000 people in 2023.
"Employment is still strong. We've had a huge surge in the labour force growth with so many migrants coming in," Ms Zollner said.
The benchmark consumers price index inflation is at 4.7 per cent in New Zealand, well down from from the mid-2022 peak of 7.3 per cent, but still above the central bank's target of one to three per cent.
While Ms Zollner's ANZ is the only bank tipping a rise, markets on the whole have priced in a 36 per cent chance of another 25 basis point lift.
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said the RBNZ was talking tough, but wouldn't follow through.
"We expect the RBNZ to hold the cash rate at 5.5 per cent whilst maintaining a very forceful hawkish bias," he said.
"But it's a bit like crying wolf. Being hawkish is one thing, delivering a hike is another."
The NZ Institute of Economic Research's "shadow board" of eight economists recommended a hold.
"The continued easing in the labour market, annual CPI inflation and the slowing in GDP growth suggest that the OCR increases to date are having the dampening effect on the New Zealand economy as the RBNZ intended," NZIER senior economist Ting Huang said.
"Several members pointed out that it is too soon to consider decreasing the OCR, given that domestic inflation pressures remain elevated."
