WASHINGTON – Republicans are leaning into the burgeoning battle over critical race theory, betting that the hot-button issue will not only energize their base, but help bring back some of the swing suburban voters they lost in the last election.
While the party has focused to varying degrees on several contentious cultural issues in the six months since President Joe Biden took office — ranging from coronavirus pandemic restrictions to transgender youth in sports to migrants at the border — top Republican officials and operatives say critical race theory is among the topics that are likely to have a longer shelf life heading into the 2022 midterm elections.
They argue that the issue can be targeted towards key voting blocs, most notably suburban parents, and also fit into the GOP’s broader strategy of portraying the Democrats who control Washington as shifting too far to the left.
“In suburban areas, the number one cultural issue is critical race theory. The suburbs are on fire with anger,” said Corry Bliss, a Republican strategist who works on congressional races. “We are at the beginning of this issue, not the end.”
Critical race theory is a concept that racism has been systematically ingrained in American society since the days of slavery. Once reserved for mostly academic settings, the issue has gained prominence in recent months as racial justice movements continue across the country.
Conservatives often use it as an umbrella term to argue that public schools are teaching children liberal ideologies and that the United States is an inherently racist country.
The conservative Fox News mentioned critical race theory 901 times on air in June, the liberal group Media Matters found, up from 537 times in May and 226 times in April. At least seven Republican-led state legislatures have passed legislation opposed to the teaching of critical race theory in K-12 classrooms this year, according to the Brookings Institution.
And 137 school board officials have been targeted by recall efforts in 2021, already double the total from all of last year, in large part due to critical race theory backlash, according to research from Ballotpedia.
Republicans are trying to harness that energy for next year’s midterms as they seek to take control of the U.S. House and Senate, where Democrats hold narrow majorities.
“Critical race theory has so many legs right now,” said Republican pollster Robert Blizzard. “It’s combining cultural frustration GOP voters have nationally with local concerns.”
While critical race theory is animating the party’s base, Republican operatives say the issue will have wider appeal than other cultural wedge issues because some parents see it as having a direct impact on their children’s education.
Republicans are zeroing in on winning back the white college-educated, suburban voters that abandoned them during former President Donald Trump’s tenure. A new study from Pew Research Center found that Biden won suburban voters by 11 percentage points in the 2020 election after Trump won them by two points in the 2016 election.
“Parents all over the country have been mobilized because they do not want their children being taught they are automatically racist because of their skin color. I fully expect Democrats’ support for this controversial theory to be at the center of 2022 campaigns,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer said in a statement to McClatchy. “The most compelling electoral issues are those that focus on the issue of fairness, and that’s why critical race theory will be incredibly damaging to every vulnerable Democrat.”
REACHING SWING VOTERS
Public polling suggests that most Americans do not hold strong views about critical race theory, if they are even familiar with it at all. A recent Morning Consult survey found that 52% of voters nationally either had never heard of critical race theory or had no opinion on the issue.
The topic has only come up sparingly in paid advertising. In the past three months, critical race theory has been explicitly mentioned in just seven political TV and digital ads, according to data that the tracking firm AdImpact provided to McClatchy.
But Republicans say they expect that to change as the election cycle progresses, arguing that the more voters hear about critical race theory — still a relatively new issue in politics — the more likely they are to oppose it.
“Critical race theory as an issue itself, voters don’t know what it is off the bat. But when they do, they are terrified of it,” said Kristin Davison, a GOP consultant. “Critical race theory is a tangible example that’s waking people up, and it’s not just Republicans. It’s waking up relapsed Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats.”
The Morning Consult poll showed that 23% of all voters held a very unfavorable view of critical race theory, while 8% held a very favorable view. Broken down by party, the survey found that 42% of Republicans and 25% of independents held very unfavorable views of it, compared to 5% of Democrats.
Republican officials and strategists also point out that even as they anticipate the critical race theory debate to remain relevant, more traditional pocketbook issues like taxes, spending and jobs will likely be top of mind for voters in 2022. But they say that economic and cultural issues can be tied together to cast Democrats as out of the mainstream and in need of a check on their power in Washington.
“It creates a narrative that Democrats took over and didn’t just move a little to the left, but are trying to radically change the direction of the country in a way voters don’t agree with,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Chris Hartline.
Democratic strategists say they do not foresee critical race theory having much resonance outside of the most ardent Republican voters. They point to GOP efforts in recent elections to elevate wedge issues like immigration and crime to the broader electorate that had limited success.
“They are blowing it up much bigger than it really is,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. “They’re playing to their base. There are mixed results at best if this will have staying power with the middle of the electorate.”
But given how polarized the country is, operatives in both parties say volatile cultural issues in general are poised to play a more prominent role in upcoming elections.
“It’s essentially a cultural cold war in the United States,” Blizzard said. “Critical race theory now is another touchpoint. I think there will be more of them, not less of them.”
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