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National

NT voters in Lingiari and Solomon prepare to go to the polls for the federal election

Voters in all corners of the Northern Territory are preparing to cast their ballots. (ABC News: Michael Franchi)

The Northern Territory accounts for a significant proportion of Australia's land mass, but on the electoral front, it's a blip on the map.

Of the 151 seats in the Lower House of Federal Parliament, only two are occupied by people who live in the NT.

With the election now called, the contest for the electorates of Lingiari and Solomon is ramping up.

While Labor currently has a grip on both seats, different factors could make for a changing of the guard on election night.

Marion Scrymgour, Damien Ryan, Tina MacFarlane and Luke Gosling are contesting the Northern Territory's two lower house seats in this year's federal election.

The battle for the bush vote in Lingiari

The massive electorate of Lingiari covers 99.99 per cent of the NT — everything beyond Darwin and parts of Palmerston.

The region has been the domain of Labor stalwart Warren Snowdon for almost two decades, who retained the seat in 2019 with a 5.5 per cent margin.

But Mr Snowdon's decision to retire has opened the door for a newcomer to become the voice of the Territory's bush.

While independents and minor parties will contest the seat, the main battle is between Labor's Marion Scrymgour and the Country Liberal Party's Damien Ryan.

Lingiari is a vast electorate that covers most of the NT, including many remote communities. (ABC News: Michael Franchi)

Ms Scrymgour was the first Indigenous woman elected to the NT parliament in 2001.

She was later elevated to the role of Deputy Chief Minister, which at the time made her the highest-ranking Indigenous woman in Australian political history.

Mr Ryan was the mayor of Alice Springs for more than 13 years until he relinquished the role last year.

He contested the NT election in 2020 as the CLP's candidate for Araluen but lost by just 42 votes.

Mr Snowdon is retiring after two decades in parliament. (ABC News: Mark Moore)

ABC election analyst Antony Green said the result in Lingiari will hinge on two factors.

Firstly, whether Labor can retain its share of the vote in the electorate's main regional hubs without the familiar presence of Mr Snowdon.

And secondly, whether the party can hold its grip on the Indigenous vote in remote communities.

"There's two very different parts to that electorate and Labor will be working hard to hang on to both of them if they want to retain the seat," Mr Green said.

With small swing, Solomon could flip

The Darwin and Palmerston-based seat of Solomon has been held by both major parties since its inception in 2001.

But Labor's incumbent Luke Gosling — who holds the seat with a slim margin of 3.1 per cent — is hoping to become the first local representative to win three times in a row.

The former commando's main rival is the CLP's Tina MacFarlane, who unsuccessfully ran for office in Lingiari in 2013 and 2016.

To flip Solomon for the CLP, the former station owner will need around 1,700 people to change their votes.

The Solomon electorate covers Darwin and parts of Palmerston. (ABC News: Dane Hirst)

The ABC's election analyst said voter sentiment towards the NT government had previously affected the federal vote in Solomon, particularly during the dying days of the CLP Giles government in 2016.

But Mr Green added that even if some people decided to cast a protest vote against the Labor Gunner government this year, the CLP might still struggle to overcome the margin.

"If the swing is against the [Coalition] government at the general election, it'll be hard to see that Solomon would go more than three per cent in the opposite direction," he said.

Both of the NT's lower house seats are considered marginal. (ABC News: Samantha Jonscher)

Mr Green said if the election results are close across the country, the outcomes in Solomon and Lingiari could play a critical role in determining which party forms government.

"The [Coalition] government has a very tough task getting back into government," he said.

"It's got only a one-seat majority, it needs to hold all its seats in Western Australia and Queensland, and if it doesn't, it needs to gain seats elsewhere.

Mr Green said the battle for the NT's two Senate seats was far more predictable.

He said Labor's Malarndirri McCarthy was likely to be re-elected alongside the CLP's candidate Jacinta Price, who defeated incumbent Senator Sam McMahon in a preselection contest last year.

However, Senator McMahon is not giving up hope of a return to the Upper House after announcing she would put her name on the ballot as a candidate for the Liberal Democrats.

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