The Liberal Party looks set to retain the state seat of Willoughby as postal vote counts widen the gap between Tim James and independent Larissa Penn.
ABC election analyst Antony Green says Liberal candidate Mr James has an unassailable lead, with his first preference count growing more than 2 per cent since the postal vote count began today.
Latest tallies have Mr James at 53.0 per cent, after preferences, while Ms Penn has attracted 47.0 per cent of ballots.
"From a count of 10,000 postals, Tim James will go on to win Willoughby for Liberal Party," Green said.
"First preference lead widens from 11.2 per cent to 13.5 per cent, too wide for Independent Larissa Penn to close on preferences."
The state government's hold on the seat, formerly held by ex-premier Gladys Berejiklian, appeared fraught after a 19 per cent swing away from the Coalition was recorded at last weekend's by-election.
That swing has narrowed to 18.0 per cent as postal ballot tallies begin to roll in.
Ms Penn's first preference voting rose by more than 20 per cent since she last ran at the 2019 state election, and she has so far garnered just over 30 per cent of votes this time around.
There was a record number of postal votes cast in this month's by-elections, held in four seats, as eligibility criteria was expanded due to the pandemic.
Mr James, a member of the Liberal's right faction, won pre-selection to contest the seat after Ms Berejiklian's resignation in October.
Speaking at party headquarters last Saturday, while enjoying a narrow lead over Ms Penn, Mr James said he was "very confident" of winning the seat.
"I am so humbled and so grateful to the people for putting their faith and trust in me as their next member," he said.
The 46-year-old is the chief executive of the Menzies Research think tank and a former chief of staff to NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts.
Mr James was not Ms Berejiklian's pick to succeed her in Willoughby, with the popular former Premier endorsing ex-local mayor Gail Giles-Gidney.
Ms Berejiklian later endorsed Mr James after the party rank and file chose him as candidate 58-52 over Ms Giles-Gidney.
In 2018, Mr James lost a pre-selection to contest the seat of North Shore to current MP Felicity Wilson.
Considered a blue-ribbon seat for the party, Willoughby was won by the Liberals in 2019 with a margin of 20 per cent.
But Ms Penn's campaign, grounded in opposing controversial transport projects such as the Western Harbour Tunnel, drew considerable support from the community.
