Thousands of low-income renters are facing burgeoning rents as the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) winds up, even as the federal government launches a suite of housing policies to tackle Australia's housing crisis.
The Kevin Rudd-era policy launched in 2008 and subsidised rentals to make them affordable for low-income residents.
But in 2014 the Tony Abbott government spiked the scheme, after capping the number of properties at 38,000.
The last subsidised properties are set to exit the scheme in 2026.
In Caboolture, north of Brisbane, Trish Miller has been nervously checking her emails, waiting to find out how much her $173 weekly rent will increase when her NRAS lease ends in a week.
The 63-year-old, who worked in the clothing industry for decades, has lived in a block of NRAS apartments for 10 years, after lengthy illness and years caring for her mother.
"I know the climate at the moment, I know the situation ... I know what the rents have been increased to here, they've been increased from $260 to $310," she said.
She and other senior women in the apartment block were all facing the same problem of cutting out food or healthcare from their already limited budgets in order to afford housing.
"They don't go anywhere. They can't go anywhere. They're just living to pay their rent," she said.
"It's sad that this is the situation that we've come to in our lives."
Ms Miller receives the maximum Centrelink rent assistance, and she receives the pension, for which she said she was "very grateful".
She believed she would be able to use her savings to cover a rent increase of up to $50 a fortnight, but if her landlord opted for a higher rent, she would have to go back on the social housing waitlist.
Queensland homes account for 30 per cent of NRAS stock
Queensland Council of Social Services chief executive Aimee McVeigh said the end of NRAS would push more people into housing stress, with 50,000 people currently on the state's social housing register.
"The removal of NRAS has a particularly pronounced impact in Queensland because 30 per cent of the properties in the scheme are in Queensland and … we do have a growing population," she said.
"We have a housing system under extreme stress, so if you're taking that subsidy away from people on low incomes, you can only expect that will have further people facing homelessness."
About $11,000 was paid annually to property owners who signed up their properties for 10 years under the scheme, committing to rents at least 20 per cent lower than the market rate.
Before the federal election there were calls from the housing sector for the Morrison government to extend the life of the scheme amid the explosion of rental prices during the pandemic.
Queensland Housing Minister Leeanne Enoch said she had "strongly advocated" for an extension of NRAS, or an alternative proposal to address housing need.
New Federal Housing Minister Julie Collins said the rental crisis was "the legacy of the former Liberal-National government", and the ALP federal government would lead a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council with all states and territories.
"The Albanese government has a strong set of policies that we took to the election to help address these challenges and we are already working hard to fulfil these commitments," she said.
"These policies include the $10-billion Housing Australia Future Fund which will build 30,000 social and affordable housing properties nationally in its first five years."
The end of NRAS
Many NRAS properties are owned by community-housing providers who are required to limit rent increases or charge no more than 30 per cent of a household's income, but others are privately owned by investors.
Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute managing director Michael Fotheringham said the Abbott government made clear its belief that social housing was a state responsibility, a policy supported by subsequent Coalition governments.
"There were some implementation problems with the program, that's true, but there are implementation issues with most Commonwealth programs," he said.
"It was absolutely politics getting in the way."
Grattan Institute research in 2019 argued that NRAS was poor value for money, with developers pocketing an estimated $1 billion in subsidies that were set too high.
The institute also found eligibility criteria for renters was too broad, and there was little evidence the scheme encouraged the construction of new affordable housing.
'Nowhere for them to go'
But one community housing provider said the scheme was, overall, a good investment.
Not-for-profit organisation Community Housing Limited has managed about 1,600 NRAS properties, the majority in Queensland with some in NSW and South Australia, through its real estate arm Horizon Housing.
Manager Gavin Potter said as many properties completed their 10 years in the program, investors facing higher interest rates and rising costs are now opting to sell up or list their properties on the open market for higher rents.
"The whole community housing sector is, at the moment, all working towards an outcome because an NRAS ends, it's going to get a little bit worse before it gets better," Mr Potter said.
"Tenants that may not have been considered homeless now fall into that category, because there is absolutely nowhere for them to go."
Mr Potter said the Queensland government was looking at buying some privately owned NRAS properties, to be managed by community housing providers, keeping tenants in their homes with affordable rents.
'Enormously positive' federal moves
Dr Fotheringham said the Commonwealth's plan to build 30,000 affordable houses in the next five years was a "good approach".
But, he said, current NRAS renters could not move into houses that don't yet exist.
"There's always a lag to this, and we have supply chain issues that will make 30,000 [houses] hard to do. So it is an ambitious target," he said.
"But the intention is there, the direction's there, and more importantly the dialogue with the states has reopened.
"The idea that the states and Commonwealth will work together, and will bring local government into the tent, and will bring industry into the tent, and community sectors into the tent, is enormously positive."
