If the outcome of the election is decided by personality and not politics, Sir Keir Starmer has one foot in Downing Street already.
That is the clear conclusion of an exclusive survey for The Independent by pollsters Redfield and Wilton.
It came on the day that Sir Keir gave his first keynote speech of the general election campaign, focusing very much on his personal story and his family’s struggle with poverty while attempting to quell doubts over what sort of prime minister he would be.
The survey of 1,500 adults showed that if you ask voters who they would rather go to the pub with, lend money to, get them to help put up a shelf, make them laugh, join their quiz team or cry on their shoulder – then Mr Starmer wins hands down every time.
The widest gap is over which one you would ask to do a DIY task, with Mr Starmer ahead by 39 per cent to 17 per cent, and the closest on who you would want on a pub quiz team, with the Labour leader ahead 38 per cent to 28 per cent.
Based on the evidence of the Redfield and Wilton poll, the brutal truth for Rishi Sunak is that his opponent is seen as more practical, fun, blokey, trustworthy and knowledgeable.
There is no avoiding it: they like Sir Keir more than they like Mr Sunak.
The results are less clear cut when voters are asked which wild animal the leaders most resemble.
The good news for Mr Sunak is that he is seen as one-half meerkat, a cute and highly alert creature. The bad news is he is also seen as one-half skunk: smelly and sly.
The good news for Mr Starmer is that he is seen as one-third tiger – evidence perhaps that his claim to have ruthlessly ditched Labour’s left-wing baggage has hit home with some voters. The not-so good news is that he is also seen as one-third skunk and one-third lizard, which could suggest that another part of the electorate is not so impressed by his U-turns.
It was this issue that the Labour leader attempted to address today as he lifted the lid on his own upbringing to reveal what sort of leader he will be.
Mr Starmer told party activists in Lancing, on the Sussex coast, how he grew up in a red-brick Victorian terrace in Oxted on the Surrey border with Kent, the son of a toolmaker and a nurse. His mother constantly strugged with ill-health and needed the NHS, he said.
He insisted that as the Tories make “desperate” attempts to talk about defence and reintroducing national service, the real issues are the cost of living and the NHS, where his early life shaped his values.
“I imagine my character is shaped by where I started in life,” he said. “I grew up in a small town, not a million miles away from here, a place called Oxted on the Surrey-Kent border.
“Should you go to Oxted you will see a place that, in my opinion, is about as English as it gets.”
He went on: “I loved growing up there. You could make easy pocket money clearing stones for the local farmers – that was actually my first job. And you could play football until the cows came home, literally. At my first football club, Boulthurst Athletic, we shared our home pitch with the local cows.
“It’s part of why I love our country. Not just the beauty – or the football – also the sort of quiet, uncomplaining resilience. The togetherness of the countryside. That is the best of British.”
He said his childhood in the 1970s and the “hard times” with “out of control inflation” had shaped him, adding: “The rising cost of living can make you scared of the postman coming down the path: ‘Will he bring another bill we can’t afford?’
“We used to choose the phone bill because when it got cut off, it was always the easiest to do without. We didn’t have mobiles back then but you could still just about get on with it.
“Now, all this has stayed with me. It’s shaped the plan I have drawn up for Britain and the importance, above all, of economic stability.”
Sir Keir’s life story was a response to Mr Sunak’s own attempts to root himself in the needs of ordinary voters by talking about growing up helping his mother in the family pharmacy.
Mr Sunak is keen to emphasise that he was not always a privately educated millionaire, and Sir Keir wants voters to see past his title and high-flying career as a lawyer. But Sir Keir appears at the moment to be winning over more voters than the prime minister.
Both have previously relied on their love of football and cricket to present a more human face. Mr Sunak, who supports Premier League-bound Southampton, was out playing football in Chesham and Amersham, a seat lost three years ago to the Lib Dems. Arsenal-supporting Sir Keir has drawn attention by doing a series of events at lower league football grounds.
The damage to Tory election hopes inflicted by Mr Sunak’s perceived personal shortcomings is compounded by the political failings of all five Conservative prime ministers, including Sunak himself, in the last eight years.
According to the poll, the “biggest burden” on Tory election prospects is Liz Truss, who triggered an economic crash during her few weeks in power.
In the league table of least liked recent Tory PMs, she is closely followed by Boris Johnson, with Mr Sunak third, ahead of Theresa May and David Cameron.
The survey also provides a damning rebuke to Brexiteers who claimed that cutting ties with Brussels would curb immigration, legal and otherwise.
By an overwhelming margin, voters say all forms of immigration are higher not lower as a result of leaving the EU – and that it is a bigger issue now than it was before Brexit.
In a further blow to Mr Sunak, 24 per cent of people intending to vote Labour say the main reason is that they do not like him (7 per cent) or his party (17 per cent).
By contrast only 11 per cent of those planning to vote Tory say their main motivation is dislike of Mr Starmer (7 per cent) or Labour (4 per cent).
There is a crumb of comfort for Mr Sunak in that he appears to have won the battle of the election campaign slogans.
In a straight contest between the Tories’ “clear plan, bold action, secure future” and Labour’s one-word “change”, 44 per cent chose the Conservative campaign rally cry against 33 per cent who prefer Labour’s.
Philip van Sheltinga, of Redfield and Wilton, said: “It is difficult to understand why Rishi Sunak is running a presidential-style election campaign against Keir Starmer. It is not 2020 any more. The enamour around ‘dishi Rishi’ is long gone.
“As our poll figures show, much of the British public simply does not like Sunak, does not think he can relate to them, and simply does not trust him, given how much he has said and how little he has done since he became prime minister. By comparison, they do not mind Starmer.”
