We may be deep into the off-season, but a significant week still lies ahead for Nottingham Forest.
The summer transfer window opens on Wednesday, while the 2023/24 Premier League fixtures are released the following day. It means the excitement and anticipation for the upcoming campaign can really start.
Plenty of work has already been going on behind the scenes, however. And ahead of a key few days, here’s our take on the latest goings-on Trentside.
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Taiwo’s tournament
Last week we brought you news of Taiwo Awoniyi’s generous donations to patients at a hospital in Nigeria. But the Reds striker’s good work on his return to his homeland didn’t stop there - indeed, he has had a busy few days.
The Never Stop Dreaming Tournament, organised by the 25-year-old, took place in his hometown of Ilorin, Kwara State. Held at a local pitch, it is said to have provided a platform for aspiring young footballers from the community to showcase their talents. Twenty-six football academies from the region were involved, including Awoniyi’s Unicorn Football Academy.
“Some of my friends used to say, ‘Taiwo, your life is like a script’. For me, personally, everything that happened today is things that I have said into existence before because those are my dreams, coming from nothing to something,” the forward told Soccernet.ng. “For me standing there today, it is more like seeing what I have said into existence many years back, even without having an idea of how it will come to pass.”
He added: “The tournament is for the state. We are just privileged to have organised such a tournament. “Maybe tomorrow, if we see some players who are doing well, I can tell my agent if he can help this guy.”
A big few days will be rounded off by linking up with his country, with Awoniyi called up to the squad for Sunday’s Africa Cup of Nations qualifier against Sierra Leone. He has not played for the Super Eagles since last September, but his form for Forest during the run-in caught the eye.
“It’s a great privilege for any player,” he said. “It’s an honour, and it should not be taken for granted. I’m very happy I was invited, I am proud and overjoyed as well.”
On the move
Amid suggestions Rangers want Jonathan Panzo, another (now former) Forest youngster has already headed north of the border this summer. Falkirk have announced the signing of goalkeeper Nicky Hogarth on a one-year deal.
The 21-year-old was among six academy players confirmed as moving on from the City Ground when the club published their retained list. There was other interest in the out-of-contract shot-stopper, but the Bairns won the race for his signature.
Hogarth had a successful loan spell there during the first half of the 2022/23 campaign. He is said to have seen a return to Falkirk as the best option for getting regular first-team football.
Assistant manager Paul Smith told the club’s official website: “Delighted to sign Nicky up. He had a couple of options from down south and in Scotland too, so we’re really happy he’s decided to come back. He played 17 games for us last year and did very well, his distribution is first class. I’m looking forward to working with him again next season.”
Alternative table
Another day, another reworking of the final Premier League table. After a recent VAR Effect table, now we have the xGD table - and perhaps a lesson that stats don’t always tell the whole story.
WhoScored.com have used their xG model to determine how the table would have finished if it was based on xG difference. Just as with the VAR table, it has Forest getting relegated. What is it with all these alternative tables, eh?!
Arsenal and Fulham were the biggest overperformers, in terms of their actual goal difference versus their expected goal difference. Meanwhile, Newcastle United were the only team to have performed to the exact expectation of their goal difference.
As for the Reds, the xGD model has them finishing bottom with a -29.2 xGD. Their actual goal difference was -30, making for a difference of -0.8.
For those interested, the modelling has Bournemouth and Southampton joining Forest in being relegated. The latter had the largest discrepancy between their xG difference (-23.6) and their actual goal difference (-37). Manchester City still finish top, however.
Spending spree
And if you want another Premier League table, Football365 have put together one based on net spend. This one has Forest 14th.
The findings look at clubs’ net spend for the past five seasons and works out the overall figure. The Reds’ comes in at -£168.71 million.
That is based on a loss of £156.6m for 2022/23, following the squad overhaul which brought 29 signings across two transfer windows. For 2021/22, the report indicates a £5.37m deficit, while 2020/21 is a £535,000 profit, 2019/20 is also listed as a profit at £8.56m, while 2018/19 comes in at a £15.74m loss.
The five-year net spend table reads: 1. Chelsea -£654.21m; 2. Manchester United -£540.23m; 3. Arsenal -£485.64m; 4. West Ham United -£356.5m; 5. Newcastle United -£332.48m; 7. Wolverhampton Wanderers -£276.55m; 8. Aston Villa -£271.24m; 9. Liverpool -£254.19m; 10. Manchester City -£224.97m; 11. Fulham -£197m; 12. Southampton -£178.7m; 13. Leeds United -£170.3m; 14. Nottingham Forest -£168.71m; 15. Everton -£124.94m; 16. Crystal Palace -£82.08m; 17. Leicester City -£62.23m; 18. Bournemouth -£59.18m; 19. Brighton and Hove Albion -£43.27m; 20. Brentford -£781,000.
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