Nottingham Forest are back in the Premier League relegation zone but the battle for safety remains way too close to call.
Forest boosted their survival chances with a much-needed 3-1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion at the City Ground last week. However, they suffered a last-gasp 2-1 defeat at Brentford on Saturday, having led up until the 82nd minute.
Two of the Reds' relegation rivals - Leicester City and Everton - went head-to-head on Monday night and played out a dramatic 2-2 draw. Although the result saw the Foxes leapfrog Forest on goal difference and put them back in the bottom three, it was not a bad result for Steve Cooper's side, as neither team was able to move clear with a win.
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With four fixtures remaining, it is increasingly looking like three from five - Forest, Leicester, Everton, Leeds United and Southampton - will go down. The Reds still have to play rock bottom Southampton (home), Chelsea (away), Arsenal (home) and Crystal Palace (away).
The numbers have been crunched by American website FiveThirtyEight following the latest round of matches in order to forecast the final league table. And it is good news for Forest, who are tipped to survive by the skin of their teeth.
According to the predictions, the Reds will finish just above the drop zone, fourth from bottom, on 34 points, and just behind Leicester on goal difference. But crucially, they are a point ahead of Leeds and Everton, who both go down on 33 points, joining Southampton (28 points) in the Championship next season.
Saints are given a 98% chance of being relegated, followed by Everton on 63% and Leeds on 56%. Forest have a 52% chance of going down, with Leicester at just 30%.
Whether this forecast proves to be correct remains to be seen. But no doubt Forest fans will certainly be hoping so - even if it does look set to go right down to the wire!
Will Forest stay up? Have your say in the comments below
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