If you follow pro basketball, you’ve heard of Victor Wembanyama.
He’s the 7-3, 19-year old phenom from France who assuredly is going to be the first pick in the NBA Draft on June 22. That pick belongs to the Spurs, a slot they ‘‘won’’ in the lottery by being almost the worst team in the league this season (22-60).
The last time the Spurs were this bad — 20-62 in 1997 — they also ‘‘won’’ the first pick and took Wake Forest’s Tim Duncan, who led them to five NBA championships from 1999 to 2014.
And now with Wembanyama, the Spurs might be en route to another mini-dynasty.
Or not.
Wembanyama is a freakishly agile and coordinated tall man who easily blocks shots (8-foot wingspan), dunks almost flat-footed and launches his accurate three-point shots from about 11 feet in the air. He can dribble. He can pass. He can rebound.
And we’re not even sure how tall he really is. He still might be growing. One source has him listed at 7-2. ESPN says he’s 7-5. Wembanyama himself says he’s 7-3 but 7-4 or 7-5 in shoes. And because you play in shoes, well, whatever.
Bottom line, everybody — and I do mean everybody — says this kid is a generational talent. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski has gone off the cliff, saying Wembanyama is ‘‘the greatest prospect in the history of team sports.’’
Wow. Better than Jim Brown? Wilt Chamberlain? Peyton Manning? Lew Alcindor? LeBron James? The hockey kid, Connor Bedard?
Maybe. But let’s get a grip on a couple of things here.
First off, three-point shots are what the NBA is all about now, and they can be made by anybody.
For example, undrafted, unheralded Gabe Vincent, all of 6-2, made six three-pointers for the Heat on Sunday in their 128-102 playoff annihilation of the Celtics. Height is a big advantage in a sport with 10-foot rims, but it’s not everything. Extreme height is where it gets dicey.
Mid-range players — from 6-5 to about 6-11 — seem to be the dominant forces these days. James is 6-9. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant were 6-6. Luka Doncic is 6-7. And there are shorter phenoms such as Steph Curry, who is a mere 6-2. Same as Ja Morant.
But, yes, some tall men are changing the way the game is played as they pick up the skills of guards while still dominating the hoop. Joel Embiid (7-0) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (6-11) come to mind here. As does wildly skilled, albeit jumping challenged, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (6-11).
But the really tall guys?
Kristaps Porzingis is 7-3, and while he’s a good shooter, averaging almost 20 points in his eight-year career, has he made any real difference for the Knicks, Mavericks or Wizards?
In fact, the NBA has had lots of players 7-3 or taller. Mark Eaton (7-4) was a good shot-blocker and Ralph Sampson and Rik Smits (both 7-4) were good men in the middle, but they never won anything.
One thing that happens is this: Big men seem to break down easily. Foot, ankle, knee and back problems haunt many of them, perhaps because of their sheer mass and long moving parts. Careers ended early for Sampson, 7-6 Yao Ming, 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas and 7-6 Shawn Bradley, largely because of foot injuries. Same with 6-11 Bill Walton. The second pick in the draft last year, 7-1 Chet Holmgren, has yet to play in a game for the Thunder because of a Lisfranc foot injury that required surgery.
It’s true, however, that some huge men carried on nicely. Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (formerly Alcindor) and Shaquille O’Neal — all in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame — played well and long. No man’s health future is written simply because of his physical scale.
But you have to be concerned about Wembanyama, who, though just a kid, sometimes looks like a stick figure being unfolded from a box. Ineffective Manute Bol (7-7) looked like that, only more so. Indeed, teammates said Bol didn’t travel with the team; they just faxed him from place to place.
It would be fun to see young Wembanyama take the NBA to new heights, so to speak, to a new standard of excitement. They say he weighs 230 pounds, but, man, he looks frail to me.
Basically, nothing is a given here. Getting to the top for any player is a long, hard haul, one that’s often futile.
Good luck, Victor. You’re the greatest prospect ever.
