When a reporter asked if the White House had already started the transition process, Karine Jean-Pierre seemed bemused. “Why?” the press secretary retorted. “Are you trying to kick us out already? We’ve got five months.”
Whatever excitement there is in American politics at the moment, the White House is not the centre of the action. What was expected to be a hectic final sprint towards the presidential election, with Joe Biden pinballing between swing-state rallies, has been replaced by long, languorous afternoons in humid Washington.
Since 81-year-old Biden ended his re-election campaign after losing the confidence of fellow Democrats, his schedule has been appreciably quieter and his public appearances more scarce. As the party’s new nominee, Vice-President Kamala Harris, 59, barnstorms the country and electrifies crowds, there are some days when Biden lies low and is not seen at all.
Jean-Pierre recently acknowledged that the president and White House were still “recalibrating” after his decision. “We are trying to figure out what the next six months are going to look like,” she told journalists. “Just give us a beat.”
Such absences can create an impression that Biden is less running through the tape than staggering across the finish line. The vacuum can be filled by baseless rightwing conspiracy theories suggesting that Biden is no longer fit for office and that Harris, former president Barack Obama or some other deep state operative is actually running the government.
However, analysts say, Biden is making a deliberate choice to work on cementing his legacy – and ensuring the election of Harris to protect it from Republican rival Donald Trump. Though his relevance is diminished, the fact he no longer needs to worry about getting re-elected could prove liberating.
Domestically he hopes to keep money flowing from a series of major legislative wins early in his term that could be undone should Trump return to the White House. He will press to quickly fill federal judiciary vacancies and last month he proposed reforms for the supreme court, calling on Congress to establish term limits and an enforceable ethics code for the nine justices.
Foreign policy represents Biden’s best hope for a final defining moment. Last week he helped secure the release of the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US marine Paul Whelan and others in the biggest prisoner swap between Moscow and the US since the cold war.
Now he is racing against the clock to persuade Israel and Hamas to agree to his proposed three-phase ceasefire deal to bring home remaining Israeli hostages and potentially pave the way for an end to the 10-month-old war in Gaza. At the same time, he is desperate to avoid tensions with Iran escalating into an all-out regional conflagration.
Bill Galston, a former policy adviser to President Bill Clinton, said: “I would imagine that he is going to devote a lot of time and energy to the situation in the Middle East. He surely doesn’t want history to record that the final months of his tenure witnessed the outbreak of the first comprehensive Middle East war in decades, a war that he, like others, has been struggling to avoid.
“I would think that it’s going to be all hands on deck to try to contain the ripples of the Iranian attack when it comes, to try to prevent Israel and Hezbollah from moving from tit-for-tat to something much worse, and finally figure out a way of getting the Gaza ceasefire done.”
Governing well might also be a more effective way of helping Harris than making speeches. Enthusiasm for the vice-president at rallies and online has already far exceeded anything that he could muster. Biden is not expected to feature prominently as a campaign surrogate for reasons of both style and substance.
His low approval rating, especially on issues such as immigration, inflation and Gaza, would saddle his deputy with unwanted baggage. Moreover, the gaffe-prone oldest president in American history would not be a natural fit for Harris’s optimistic, future-focused campaign. Her running mate, Tim Walz, told her this week: “Thank you for bringing back the joy.”
Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington, added: “She needs a chance to separate herself from him without breaking ranks with him and that will be easier if she draws a bright line between her candidacy and his presidency. I’m not saying that he should become invisible but I don’t think he should be highly visible either, except in his presidential capacity.”
Past lame-duck presidents have used their waning days to seek one more big policy win. In 2000 Clinton launched negotiations between the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Barak, and the Palestinian Authority leader, Yasser Arafat, at Camp David in one last – and ultimately doomed – effort at securing Middle East peace. In 2008 George W Bush signed into law a $700bn bailout of the financial services industry as the global crisis deepened.
But Biden may still be brooding over how a dismal debate performance in June destroyed his hopes of a second term. He is reportedly smarting over those who orchestrated the end of his 51-year political career and the even swifter embrace of Harris as his replacement. His first in-depth interview since the announcement will be broadcast on CBS News on Sunday.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: “I can imagine that there’s a lot of frustration in Biden world because Biden would most definitely like to be rounding out his administration and pursuing his policies but the energy and the resources of the Democratic party are about winning the next election.”
Jacobs added: “If he is campaigning he becomes the subject of the Trump campaign for being frail and clueless. There’s nothing good that Joe Biden can do. Also, Kamala Harris needs to clearly identify herself as a distinct and separate brand and she can’t do that if Joe Biden is on the campaign trail.”
However, Biden is still sure to receive a rapturous welcome later this month in Chicago, where he is expected to give a prime-time address on the first night of the Democratic national convention before leaving the stage clear for Harris and Walz. The party will be eager to project unity and gratitude for his selfless act in passing the torch.
Donna Brazile, a political strategist and former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee, said: “He has done more to get this country on the right track than any other president at least in modern history and it’s up to him to decide when and where he will enter in the 2024 race.
“Look, he left the vice-president with millions in the bank, with hundreds of thousands of volunteers, over 400 campaign offices. I don’t know how much more we want from Joe Biden but he has given the vice-president a head start and a very healthy start in this 90-day marathon.”
