The Northern Territory government has publicly released the findings of a critical, three-year study into fracking in the Beetaloo sub-basin, finding no new risks associated with the development of an onshore gas industry.
Completion of the assessment means the Northern Territory government will likely have a final decision on whether fracking production will go ahead in the next few weeks, according to Environment Minister Lauren Moss.
The Strategic Regional Environmental and Baseline Assessment — or SREBA — was a key recommendation from the 2018 Pepper Inquiry, and one which the Northern Territory government had committed to finalising before any production licences were issued.
"We're releasing this significant body of work almost five years to the day since the government accepted all of the recommendations of [the Pepper] inquiry," Ms Moss said.
"I think that this research will well and truly withstand public scrutiny, and it will certainly stand the test of time.
"The inquiry itself said that the risks would be able to be mitigated if we implemented the 135 recommendations. That's the work that government's committed to.
"This body of work should provide people with comfort that the Northern Territory government absolutely takes our obligation to appropriate, science-based decision-making seriously."
The report's release follows a growing tide of opposition from Indigenous groups, environmentalists and pastoralists who are collectively worried about pollution, water use, threatened species and carbon emissions.
According to the study's 323-page summarised report, "the SREBA studies did not reveal new risks associated with onshore gas development additional to those that were extensively examined in the [Pepper] Inquiry … but the SREBA provides additional information to help understand [and] manage the risks".
Touted as one of the largest environmental studies undertaken in Australia to date, the assessment collected data from an area larger than Tasmania, consulted more than 200 people and examined hundreds of underground water bores.
Researchers from a number of bodies including the CSIRO, University of Queensland and Northern Territory government departments, looked at water quality, aquatic ecosystems, baseline greenhouse gas emissions as well as social and cultural impacts.
The Beetaloo sub-basin was found to hold one of the world's richest ant populations, as well as a number of threatened species, including the Gouldian finch and the yellow-spotted monitor.
SREBA collected and produced baseline data on greenhouse gas emissions, finding that the main sources of elevated methane concentrations were from cattle, fires, towns and fuel stations.
"The [Pepper] Inquiry laid out a recipe of all the information gaps that they saw [and] needed to be filled before decisions could be made about hydraulic fracturing in the territory, and we've undertaken a systematic process to fill those gaps," the territory's Environment Department's director of flora and fauna, Alaric Fisher, said.
The SREBA report also noted that a previous risk assessment had found 33 chemicals associated with drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations in the Beetaloo "were of potentially high concern" and that any future groundwater-monitoring programs aimed at detecting contamination from onshore gas activities should be informed by these.
However, the Northern Territory government argues that the development of an onshore gas industry is important for the small jurisdiction's under-developed economy.
One key recommendation to limit fracking emissions, however, remains a way off.
That measure — known as recommendation 9.8 of the Northern Territory's fracking inquiry — requires the territory government to get the federal government's commitment and support to ensure there is no net increase to Australia's emissions as a result of onshore gas development.
Ms Moss was unable to confirm whether the Northern Territory government had succeeded in getting federal support, but would "have more to say about that in coming weeks".
"The safeguard mechanism and the comments that were made around that also have acknowledged that the federal government sees that it has a role in this," she said.
Critics say SREBA offers little reassurance
The University of Queensland — which visited dozens of communities across the Northern Territory — found that "water is a consistent and major concern for all stakeholder groups of the Beetaloo region".
"People felt government and industry objectives were too closely aligned for regulation to be effective and that communities are not heard," the report states.
"Territorians have very low trust in the gas industry to adhere to best practice and very low trust in the government's ability to regulate the industry effectively."
Researchers conceded the pandemic had impacted their ability to reach people on the ground and highlighted "there is more work to be done".
The earlier scientific inquiry — led by Justice Rachel Pepper almost a decade ago — spent 15 months investigating the impacts of fracking, and found the risks could be reduced to acceptable levels if 135 recommendations were implemented in full.
However, the panel found that there was a "lack of adequate pre-development assessment and environmental baseline data" and considered it "essential" that the knowledge gaps be addressed prior to the granting of any production approvals.
On the other hand, critics say the completed SREBA offers "no reassurance" to communities wary of the fracking industry.
Hannah Ekin from the Arid Lands Environment Centre said she was concerned the pandemic restricted researchers' ability to travel and obtain necessary data, and cited concerns about the total impacts a fracking industry poses to the region.
"Territorians need a cumulative impact assessment of the risks … before production licences are handed out. So far, government approvals have only considered individual applications," she said.
"Justice Pepper also said a final risk assessment was required. We call on the Fyles government to approach Justice Pepper and formally request that she oversee this critical assessment."
The report also recommended a regional ranger group be established to assist with social, cultural and environmental monitoring for the Beetaloo region.
