The 25 Lok Sabha seats across the eight States of northeastern India were like an appendix until the dawn of the coalition era in 1989 turned regional parties into stakeholders at the Centre. Ahead of Mandate 2024, these seats have become crucial for political parties of all hues and sizes to achieve their national targets.
Barring a few “neutral” entities, such as Assam’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Mizoram’s ruling Zoram People’s Movement, most regional parties in the northeast are members of the BJP-helmed North East Democratic Alliance and so, by default, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre. The exceptions are the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and former activist Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal, constituents of the Congress-steered Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance.
General Election 2024: full schedule
Having won 19 of these 25 parliamentary seats in 2019, the NDA has now set the bar even higher in the region, as part of its strategy to cross 400 Lok Sabha seats across the country. “We are confident of touching 22 in the northeast this time,” Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, usually spot-on with his calculations, said.
Concurrent Assembly polls
Polling in 16 Lok Sabha constituencies in the region will be held in the first phase on April 19, along with the Assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Voting in the remaining nine parliamentary seats – all in Assam – are scheduled to take place in the next two phases.
The BJP enjoys an edge in Arunachal Pradesh, with 10 of the 60 Assembly seats already in the bag unopposed. It is confident of winning most of the remaining 50 Assembly seats.
The party is contesting most of the 32 Assembly seats and the lone Lok Sabha seat in Sikkim, after calling off its alliance with the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha. As Meghalaya Chief Minister and National People’s Party (NPP) chief Conrad K. Sangma puts it, it is not unusual for allies and temporary rivals to face each other in electoral battles.
Fluid alliances
The NPP, for instance, is supporting the BJP’s candidates for the two Lok Sabha seats in Arunachal Pradesh – including Union Minister Kiren Rijiju – but is rivalling the saffron party in 23 Assembly seats in the State. The BJP has returned the favour in Meghalaya, claiming that its alliance is more cohesive than that of Congress.
The BJP underlines the distribution of Lok Sabha seats to its allies in Assam as a case in point. It is contesting 11 out of 14 seats from the State, leaving two to the Asom Gana Parishad and one to the United People’s Party Liberal.
The Congress, on the other hand, is contesting 13 Lok Sabha seats from Assam, while the AJP is contesting one. The Left Front sulked after its plea to field a candidate from the Barpeta seat was reportedly overlooked, while the Aam Aadmi Party defied an “understanding” to contest two seats – one against the Congress and the other against the AJP.
Struggling to halt a BJP sweep
Insisting that its bloc is in order, the Congress is hopeful of denying the NDA a near-clean sweep in the northeast. “Setting a target indicates manipulative practices in place to achieve it. Our goal is to stop a majoritarian party from retaining the power to be more authoritative and oppressive,” said Gaurav Gogoi, currently the tallest leader of the Congress in the northeast. He is contesting the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat.
But the Congress has been struggling to hold on to its bastions in the region. It has been virtually wiped out in Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura, which together account for nine Lok Sabha seats.
Of the four seats the party won in 2019, three are in Assam. While the Kaliabor seat ceased to exist, the Barpeta and Nagaon seats changed shape and demographic composition after the delimitation exercise in 2023. In the fourth seat, in Meghalaya’s Shillong, it is a do-or-die battle for former Union Minister Vincent H. Pala, who is eyeing a fourth straight term.
Wooing conflict-hit voters
The Congress believes it can defy the odds in conflict-scarred Manipur to win two Lok Sabha seats in the State – Inner Manipur, covering much of the Imphal Valley, and Outer Manipur, straddling the tribal hills. The party is banking on the people’s anger against an “indifferent Prime Minister” and the “reign of terror” in the State under Chief Minister N. Biren Singh to pip the BJP in the two constituencies.
The Naga People’s Front, an ally of the BJP, is equally confident of snagging Outer Manipur, given that almost half the constituency is dominated by the Kuki-Zo community, who have largely decided to boycott the polls to protest injustice by the government.
The Jorhat seat aside, a major worry for the Congress in Assam is retaining the Barpeta and Nagaon constituencies, where it will compete for Muslim votes with the minority-driven AIUDF, which it refers to as the BJP’s ‘B-team’.
“Everyone knows we formed an alliance with the Congress [for the 2021 Assam Assembly election], never with the BJP. But Congress, facing the BJP’s drive to wipe it off, spurned us,” said AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, who seeks to retain the Dhubri seat.
