The ink has barely dried on the deal to grant Tasmania an AFL licence, but already the team could be under threat following the decision of Lara Alexander and John Tucker to quit the Tasmanian Liberal Party.
For both MPs, the final straw was their government's decision to pledge $375 million towards a $715 million new Macquarie Point stadium that is planned to house the new Tasmanian AFL club.
So, with the government that brokered the deal with the AFL in minority, and two of its own members quitting specifically over the stadium, what does it mean for the contentious project and the new Tasmanian team that is attached to it?
There is no AFL team without a stadium
The government made it clear during parliament this week, coining a new slogan as a rebuttal to questions from Labor and the Greens about its stadium spend: "If you kill the stadium, you kill the team, and you kill the dream."
And, whether Tasmanians like the stadium or lump it, it's essentially true.
The deal struck with the AFL for a Tasmanian team stipulates a new stadium must be constructed in order to ensure the team's viability.
If not, the deal is moot and the team is dead.
Indeed, the stadium was the "last of the 12 workstreams" the bid team needed to tick off in order to win the support of the AFL club presidents and commission to secure the "yes" vote.
"There are 12,000 seats at Bellerive Oval. You can't make this team stack up with 12,000 memberships," said tourism chief Luke Martin, who has long advocated for the new build.
"The only way this team stacks up in their [the AFL's] eyes, and they can confidently give the licence, is if the stadium is part of it."
Can Labor, Greens and independents band together to block the stadium?
There is no direct way the stadium can be stopped by a vote on the floor of parliament.
Minority government means any legislation the Liberals want passed now needs to win the support of at least two non-government MPs. But as it stands, there is no legislation that needs to be passed in order to get the stadium — and the team — off the ground.
Earlier this week, the government declared its intention to declare the stadium as a major project once an updated Macquarie Point master plan was completed.
From there, the project goes in front of an independent Tasmanian planning commission panel for consideration. It'll be subject to assessment criteria and public consultation.
Essentially, the mechanics don't really change and, given the project doesn't need parliament's support, the stadium — and the team — is still on.
Mr Tucker and Ms Alexander have also guaranteed supply, meaning they'll support money in the upcoming state budget for the stadium.
In fact, Mr Tucker said yesterday he was neither for nor against the project, he just wanted more transparency around the process.
"We are interested in having a look at what the contracts say and what the business cases say. If the business case stacks up, and everything looks right, I don't have a problem supporting the stadium" he said.
What has the AFL boss said about the new minority government?
When AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan was quizzed on 3AW radio on Friday morning, he was firm that the political change-up did not threaten the deal he penned with the state government.
"Irrespective of a minority government or a different government altogether, that deal is in place and that stadium with a roof will go ahead?" asked mornings presenter Tony Jones.
"Yes," Mr McLachlan replied.
"Categorically?" Mr Jones pressed.
"That was pretty categoric, wasn't it?" Mr McLachlan said.
Does this change the premier's stance on the stadium?
There will be speculation about just how dedicated Premier Jeremy Rockliff is to the project, given there is now an increased chance it could cost him the 2025 election.
Could his leadership now be challenged? How would current treasurer — and potential next premier — Michael Ferguson steer the stadium project? Is he as willing to risk the power his party holds?
Both appeared steadfast in their commitment to the project at the press conference called after the MPs resigned.
If it does remain a full-steam-ahead proposition, then they will want contracts signed and shovels in the ground on the double. Physical progress at Macquarie Point makes the egg harder to unscramble.
If the defection of Ms Alexander and Mr Tucker is the final nail in the project, and there is a backflip, the government must then wriggle out of what's understood to be a binding deal with the AFL and make the decision to forgo Tasmania's AFL dream.
"If Jeremy Rockliff is smart, he'll walk away from it now, because the political cost to him will only grow," said Greens leader Cassy O'Connor yesterday.
Other states have killed major projects before. This is different
We don't know just how ironclad that deal is — the Greens and Labor are calling for it to be made public — but given the widespread joy that emanated following the granting of the licence, handing it back to the AFL after just 10 days would be as embarrassing as it is unlikely.
And that's where this situation is complicated. The stadium and the team are bound together. Again. You kill one, you kill both.
It's how this situation differs to the one faced by Dan Andrews in Victoria when he ripped up the state's east-west link project at a cost of $1.1 billion, or when South Australian premier Peter Malinauskas scrapped the $600 million Riverbank Stadium in favour of diverting the funds into a health system crippled by COVID-19.
There's little emotion attached to a freeway or a new basketball arena. There's plenty amongst Tasmanians when their long-awaited footy team is part of the package.
Tough time ahead for Liberal government
Yesterday's news puts Labor in an interesting position too. It has been happy to flip-flop between supporting the licence and opposing the new stadium, despite the two positions being at odds with each other.
Eventually, it'll need to pick a side — either begrudgingly accept it'll have to get the stadium built should it win power in 2025, or follow the Greens' lead and withdraw support for the Tasmanian team.
The defection of two government MPs over the stadium, however, will hand Labor — and the Greens — a box of ammo that will sustain them for 18 months.
How can this government in good conscience continue with this project when your own MPs are quitting the party, at least partly because of it, will be the question.
And while the AFL isn't the most popular organisation in Tasmania, a thought must be spared for it — to think the league knocked Tasmania back for three decades because of its division, politics, economics and lack of viability.
Despite Mr McLachlan's confidence in the deal, there must have been a whiff of "I told you so" floating through AFL house in Melbourne on Friday morning.
