The Met Office has pushed back the date it expects traditionally wintry weather to hit the UK. It's last long-range forecast had suggested snow was likely on higher ground this month, but the forecasting body now thinks the milder weather will only start to change in very late November and early December.
Despite being wet and windy, it has been a very mild start to November, and southerly winds will bring exceptionally mild air back again later in the week. The Met Office is forecasting that temperatures will widely be 4 to 7°C above the seasonal average by Friday.
Wales could see highs of 17°C on Armistice Day, with some parts of the UK seeing temperatures in the teens overnight. BBC Weather says temperatures on Tuesday will be a little above average but it’ll turn very mild by Thursday with highs of 16/17°C and overnight lows of 14/15°C.
The Met Office forecast for the rest of the week and into the weekend is showing that Saturday will be "dry with sunny spells".
The forecast says: "Spells of sunshine and scattered showers to start on Wednesday, alongside lighter winds than of late. The risk of heavier outbreaks continues until early afternoon when showers start to dwindle. Maximum temperature 15 °C.
"Becoming windier and cloudier but a little drier on Thursday and Friday, with the odd spot of rain. Saturday should be dry with sunny spells, alongside subsiding winds. Mild."
Is there any cold weather in the long range forecast? The Met Office had originally forecast a colder spell by mid November, but the current forecasts looking into the future are showing that that could be pushed back to December.
The Met Office forecast for Tuesday, November 22, to Tuesday, December 6, says: "A high-pressure system looks likely to settle to the west or northwest of the UK towards the end of the month, bringing more extended periods of dry and settled weather with lighter winds.
"Rain and stronger winds could still be experienced, especially in the far northwest. Into December, eastern areas could see a return to wetter conditions, with occasional frost and overnight fog, that could be slow to clear. Temperatures trending towards average for the season, perhaps feeling rather cold."
The BBC Weather monthly outlook says most of the UK will see "multiple rounds of rain", that will be heaviest across western areas of Scotland, western England and Wales this week.
It then says: "The pattern will then trend calmer and drier, setting up a milder mid-November period across the UK. Changes develop again for late-November as the high pressure providing the mild and calm mid-month conditions shift northwestward into the northern Atlantic.
"While that pattern will help to suppress precipitation across the UK late in the month, it will also allow temperatures to trend cooler. While no extreme cold is expected late in the month, chilly days will become more frequent by the end of November. Occasional mild days will sometimes interrupt the chill, so the period shouldn't be too far below average for the time of year."
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