A blitz to recruit more than 2,700 additional Victorian police officers under a $2bn investment to tackle crime has not been proved to improve community safety, a report by the state’s auditor general has found.
The report, published on Thursday, said the method used by Victoria police to determine staffing requirements was “not supported by robust evidence or analysis” and the agency lacked sufficient modelling or forecasting capabilities to develop an accurate workforce plan.
The auditor general’s report was unable to determine how Victoria police, in a business case prepared in 2016, concluded that they needed 2,729 additional officers to tackle crime.
“We found no evidence of how Victoria police arrived at this number,” the report said.
“Victoria police told us that this number originated from a government decision.”
The auditor general said Victoria police had been unable to “assure itself or the community” that the $2bn program was meeting its aims and could not adequately measure how the additional staff had been able to meet demand.
Despite this, the report said Victoria police had received more than 3,200 new police officers since 2016.
The growth was part of the Victorian government’s $2bn four-year program, announced in December 2016.
As the biggest investment in the history of the force, it was designed to crack down on an increase in crimes, such as aggravated burglaries, after the state’s crime rate increased by 10% the previous year.
The auditor general’s report noted that, in its 2022-23 budget submission, Victoria police said it required 2,300 additional staff but later requested 1,489 after a consultation process, including with the state government. This was in addition to the 2,729 officers that had been recruited to the force since 2016.
Instead, the state budget in May included $342m to recruit 502 extra police officers and 50 protective services officers over two years.
The report also criticised the Victoria police’s staff allocation modelling (SAM) – a tool introduced by the government in 2016 that predicts where police should be deployed based on crime trend data. It found the agency’s management of SAM data did not comply with government standards.
The report made six recommendations, including that the agency develop a long-term strategy workforce plan for staffing requirements to inform future budget requests.
A spokesperson for Victoria police said the agency stands by the number of additional police resources requested from government and the staff allocation model.
“Since 2017 we have recruited and trained 2,729 additional police and are confident they have been deployed in the areas where they are most needed,” the spokesperson said.
“The additional police resources have had a positive impact on community safety, which is evident through recent crime statistics and the implementation of neighbourhood policing.”
“However, like any model, decisions on where staff are ultimately allocated must be balanced with contemporary knowledge of current policing needs and emerging trends.”
The spokesperson said Victoria police noted the report’s recommendations and accepted the need for more robust reporting and transparency regarding resourcing requests and the SAM.
“We have already established a new resource and allocation committee chaired by a deputy commissioner and are currently enhancing the SAM,” the spokesperson said.
A state government spokesperson said it would work with Victoria police to ensure it had the resources needed to keep the public safe.
“Our record $4.5bn investment has delivered a stronger police presence in every corner of Victoria, helping us better respond to the challenges and staffing demands of natural disasters, the pandemic and general community safety duties,” the spokesperson said.
“Victoria police’s staffing allocation model is designed to be constantly updated and refined – and we’ve already launched a review … to ensure it best serves the safety needs of communities across the state.”
